Can Sebastopol cap a fairytale week, ending a 51-year premiership drought against the high-flying Ballarat Swans?

The simple answer is, yes!

The mighty Burra thoroughly deserve their opportunity under coach of the year, Tony Lockyer.

Character and heart in isolation gives them a chance, but can they reproduce in a fourth final to overcome a Swans’ outfit firing on all cylinders?

It’s a ‘big’ ask!

The Burra’s accountability and intent without the ball last week was enough to restrict North Ballarat to 258 disposals, some 52 below the Roosters’ season average.

On paper, the Swans bat deeper but the Burra bring something extra to the table that cannot be underestimated.

Lockyer’s group have lost just four of 21 games this season and land at City Oval with a 2-1 head-to-head advantage over Ash Baker’s Swans.

Yes, if this game is played for large periods on the outside, you can expect the Swans will get them in the end, their spread on even ground is unrivalled. But the physicality of the Burra is there one wood, a tsunami of pressure denying the ball carrier that will test the Swans’ resolve.

Ballarat will have their fair share of entries; it’s the pressure on those entries that will determine what day Tony Lockett Medallist Biggie Nyuon will have.

Fingers crossed for Burra fans that Felix Henderson and Jack Bambury are ready for the test following their one-two Henderson Medal placings. A grand final day performance is not always a given despite being crowned with such illustrious honours.

While it’s the second meet for these two in a fortnight it’s just their second in 70 days.

We’re prepared to give the Burra a forgiven run for their disappointing showing in the second semi final – full credit to Ballarat but the Sebas camp were left wondering what went wrong there!

What cannot be denied is the Burra essentially missed the start with the breeze and were vulnerable chasing the game thereafter.

The Swans have endured a comfortable finals campaign with wins over the Burra and 2024 Premiers Melton and have done nothing to deter followers but the two week spell can be an anxious wait for the enigmatic beginners.

I know nothing but a whisper of the potential inclusion of Under 18 All Australian Ethan Drever, but what an inclusion he would be adding to the degrees of difficulty for the considered underdog Sebastopol.

The 188cm mid would add further anticipation not dissimilar to Zak Butters who played in Darley’s successful 2017 finals campaign.

The Swans boast four of the BFNL’s team of the year, the Burra five, paving the landscape for a battle of the best versus the best.

There’s more to these two sides than the celebrated, just which camp obtains greater compliance from their ‘bottom half’ will go a long way deciding the result.

Mind says Ballarat, heart says Sebastopol.

This finale will be decided by forces greater than talent, namely the buy-in to the badge, above the shoulders and on the sleeve.

The last day of competition could go two ways, the Burra in a tight one or the Swans by 30+.

I’m leaning to the former, the underdog, against the odds to salute in a classic rendition of the McDonald’s BFNL Grand Final.

Plenty will need to go right for the Burra to break the drought - the vibe suggests they’re capable.

Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol by 4 points 

Players to watch

THE DAMAGE

Biggie Nyuon (Ballarat #3): Recently crowned Tony Lockett Medallist (70 goals, 16 games). Kicks around a third of all Swans’ goals when he plays. Key target will welcome dry conditions.

Thomas Simpson (Ballarat #23): Werribee VFL listed talent averaging 31 disposals over his seven club games at the Swans. Was named best afield with 40+ possessions in their 2nd semi final meet a fortnight ago. Reliable accumulator will have his fair share of the ball.

Fraser Perkins (Ballarat #21): Dangerous half forward/mid (avg. 29.2 disposals per game) whose time split will be determined by how his body is feeling. No telltale signs of distress in comfort in the 2nd semi final with his 40+ disposals and three goals. Barometer team player.

Adam Forbes (Sebastopol #11): The stage is set for some Forbes brilliance around goal (38 goals, 20 games) if the Burra are to overcome the powerful Swans and break the club’s 51-year premiership drought. Should get a dry deck to utilise his x-factor brilliance. Is this the day?

Felix Henderson (Sebastopol #6): 2026 Henderson Medallist. Ball magnet (29.6 disposals pg) and part of the Sebas big four midfield group. Hunts the footy and loves the short hit up uncontested mark to break up the play and get his game going. Expect a targeted run with role at the very minimum (in best 9/21 games, 16 goals).

Jack Bambury (Sebastopol #3): Runner-up in the 2026 Henderson Medal count. Key distributor both between the arcs and inside 50 (28.6 disposals pg). Vital cog in the big 4 midfield group at the Burra. Super talent, whose clean groundball work and two-way running ability can be (while appreciated), underestimated! Loves a goal too! (In best 13/20 games, 23 goals).

THE RESISTENCE

Alex Keath (Ballarat #28): Like teammates Brad Crouch and Luke Dunstan, Keath adds significant direction behind the ball with his AFL experience. Quite the vocal general down back and has been huge for outgoing coach Ash Baker in the Swans’ rise from sixth last year to grand finalists in 2026. Rarely gets beat 1v1 and plays with a sense of calm in chaos despite his vocal ‘traffic duty cop’ will to arrange, organise and advise his back six. In the best 11/16 games tells you Lockyer and his staff will need to find a way around the key intercept defender.

Brad Crouch (Ballarat #35): Big body mid, one of three Swans with AFL experience. Corridor mid distributor and rebounder, important around stoppage. No panic with Crouch, plays in control. Averages 29.4 disposals per game and one of the few at the top end who use the ball more by hand than foot (13.9/15.5). Solid season back where it all began - in best 8/19, 7 goals.

Tristan Maple (Ballarat #7) Footscray VFL listed. Organic product of the Swans. Very assured and trusted by foot to do the distributing. Rebounding half back/mid averaging a whopping 33.4 disposals at club level with the Swans (in best 7/8 games).

Tony Lockyer (Sebastopol #5) The Burra’s most important player behind the ball (25.6 avg disposals pg). Impassable at key stages last week when the Roosters looked out. A key pillar to the Burra’s fortunes - will need to deliver again on the big stage if Sebastopol have any plans securing the silverware (in best 10/19 including 3/3 finals, 6 goals).

Lachlan Cassidy (Sebastopol #12): Excellent stoppage player who can accumulate quickly (29 disposals pg) - part of the big 4 mid brigade. Must deny the Swans around stoppage. All can’t be offensive mids at the source - someone has to play a role and Cassidy is more than capable of defending (initially) and hurting on the outside (in best 6/14, 11 goals).

Bailey Medwell (Sebastopol #13): Rounds out the elite 4 mids at the Burra (24.9 disposals pg). Strong body with VFL experience who can aid the cause getting the ball from inside to out, denying opposition an exit from stoppage on their own terms. Quality player, capable of significant impact in any number of roles (in best 7/17 games, 12 goals).

THE SMOKEY

Ethan Drever (Ballarat): Exciting 188cm midfielder from the GWV Rebels recently named in the Under 18 All Australian team. Could be one of many stories to celebrate on the day - if the Swans indeed pick him. Expected to go pointy end of the draft. Future star.

Compare the pair Head-to-Head

1.Sebastopol P3 W2 L1

Points FOR 236 (78.66 avg)

Point at AGST 247 (82.33 avg)

95%

2.Ballarat P3 W1 L2

Points FOR 247 (82.33 avg)

Points AGST 236 (78.66 avg)

105%


Points FOR ranking (Offence)

1.Ballarat 82.33

2.Sebastopol 78.66


Points AGST ranking (Defence)

1.Ballarat 78.66

2.Sebastopol 82.33

BFNL Coaches’ Tips

Clint Proctor (North Ballarat): Ballarat by 35

Matty White (Sunbury): Sebastopol by 2

Dan Jordan (Darley): Sebastopol by 15

Troy Scoble (Melton): Sebastopol by 4

Dennis Armfield (Bacchus Marsh): Sebastopol by 9

Tommy Molan (East Point): Ballarat by 28

Marc Greig (Redan): Ballarat by 30

Jake Lohmann (Lake Wendouree): Ballarat by 15