If Saturday’s preliminary final at Marty Busch Reserve resembles anything of the qualifying final witnessed between these two on August 29th, we’re in for one hell of a ride!

Call it greed, but this BFNL finals series needs another down-to-the-wire prizefight, given four of the five finals witnessed so far have ended in margins beyond 33 points, three of those by 57 or more!

Sebastopol will welcome the opportunity to play on their home deck (7-1) against the minor premiers but will need everything to go right to deny an in form North Ballarat outfit who give every indication they’re peaking at the right time.

There’s very little between the two sides on recent form.

The Burra are 6-3 (excluding their match against Lake Wendouree) from their last nine games averaging 10.77 goals per game, while the Roosters are 8-1 (also excluding the Lakers) averaging 11.77 goals per game, their only defeat for the period coming against the Burra in the Qualifying Final.

On spec, there looked to be greater scope for the Roosters coming out of that qualifying final and we saw some of that come to fruition last week against Sunbury, albeit at Marty Busch Reserve.

One concern for the Roosters however is their average concede against the remaining two sides (87.8 points per game). For all of their impression, the numbers say the Roosters rank third of the three reaming sides in offence and defence (see below).

However, the hit out for the Roosters just six days ago at the proud home of the Burra has been timely and should hold Clint Proctor’s group in good stead.

While the Burra have a superior win/loss (4-2) record against the remaining sides, I’m not convinced they’re travelling as healthy as they would like, leaving the door ajar for a match hardened Roosters outfit to pounce.

Sure, the Roosters’ 1-4 win/loss record against Ballarat and Sebastopol is not ideal but I think they’re a much-improved side the longer the season has gone. Once role players have become impact players, while their top end count continues to grow.

If the previous finals are anything to go by, starting well is a must given all five quarter time leaders have gone onto win.

Affording any leverage on the scoreboard becomes hard work as teams look to capitalise on any momentum.

Despite the narrow result a fortnight ago, the Burra did win three quarters in isolation and have won six of the last ten meets against the Roosters. Sebastopol’s winning claims are indeed compelling.

Coach Tony Lockyer, ably supported by their unofficial 23rd man that is the loyal and faithful band of home supporters will stretch the resolve of Proctor’s Roosters who I think are up to the task, boasting more weapons and a cleaner bill of health under the bonnet.

While it’s all-in for both sides given the nature of a preliminary final, expect Ballarat coach Ash Baker to be ‘smoking the pipe’ in the background, watching it all unfold as his opponent on the BFNL’s biggest stage is revealed.

There’s nothing in it but considering I thought North Ballarat would win the ultimate on the BFNL’s last day I must lean to them finding a way to progress on Saturday.

Best of luck to both camps.

Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat

Players to watch

THE DAMAGE

Jaime Quick (North Ballarat) - Dynamic forward, ground ball specialist in match winning form with 10 goals from his last two finals (34 goals/17 games).

Jye Lockett (North Ballarat) - Progressive utility (predominate forward) whose second half season form has earned him A Grade status at this level. In ridiculous form at the right time of year - 12 score involvements last week! (48 goals/20 games)

Josh Morris (North Ballarat) - Barometer. Versatile territory gain player who does it at both ends. From thumping exit kicks out of defence to dangerous long balls inside 50 from the midfield. While recognised as a very good player, goes underrated. Elite at this level for mine - coming off 9 score involvements last week (in best 11/20 games)

Adam Forbes (Sebastopol) - Mercurial x-factor forward who missed out last week and will be keen to atone. Stage is set for some ‘Forbes brilliance’ around goal if the Burra are to progress (38 goals/19 games)

Felix Henderson (Sebastopol) - Ball magnet. Match winning 37 disposals and 4 goals in their previous meet only a fortnight ago. Roosters can’t allow that again. Expect a targeted run with role at the very minimum (in best 9/20 games,16 goals)

Jack Bambury (Sebastopol) - Key distributor both between the arcs and inside 50. Super talent, whose clean groundball work and two-way running ability can be (while appreciated), underestimated! (In best 12/20 games, 20 goals)

THE RESISTENCE

Sam Glover (North Ballarat) - Perennial intercept mark and general in defence. Sets them up well behind the ball marshalling the troops. His foot skills are often the catalyst in transition. Makes hard work look easy, and often in slow motion to the eye. Can go forward and hit the scoreboard if required (In best 7/16 games).

Dom Penny (North Ballarat) - Once promising young half back, now bonafide mid riding an exciting wave of progress. While dangerous offensively with his numbers alone, Penny understands the value of defence and doesn’t mind working back to aid the cause. Primed for a VFL opportunity moving forward (in best 11/20 games, 11 goals)

Josh Morris (North Ballarat) - Included the versatile reigning club best and fairest in both areas of interest for his territory gains out of defence and his run and carry. Morris can be every bit an 80+ metre player in the chain if allowed to run unopposed.

Tony Lockyer (Sebastopol) - The Burra’s most important player behind the ball. Similar to Glover, sets up the defence with his experience and distribution. A key pillar to the Burra’s fortunes - will need to deliver again on the big stage if Sebastopol have any plans ending their 51-year premiership drought (in best 9/18, 6 goals).

Lachlan Cassidy (Sebastopol) - Excellent stoppage player who can accumulate quickly. Must deny the Roosters around stoppage. All can’t be offensive mids at the source - someone has to play a role, and Cassidy is more than capable of defending (initially) and hurting on the outside (in best 5/13, 10 goals).

Bailey Medwell (Sebastopol) - Strong body with VFL experience, can aid the cause getting the ball from inside to out, denying a deep North Ballarat midfield an exit on their own terms. Quality player, capable of significant impact in any number of roles (in best 6/16 games, 12 goals).

Top 3 v Top 3 ladder

1. Sebastopol P6 W4 L2

Win rate: 66%

Points FOR 492 (82 avg)

Points AGST 458 (76.3 avg)

107%

2. Ballarat P5 W3 L2

Win rate: 60%

Points FOR 429 (85.8)

Point at AGST 346 (69.2)

124%

3. North Ballarat P5 W1 L4

Win rate: 20%

Points FOR 321 (64.2)

Points AGST 521 (87.6)

73%

Points FOR ranking (Offence)

1. Ballarat 85.8

2. Sebastopol 82

3. North Ballarat 64.2

Points AGST ranking (Defence)

1. Ballarat 69.2

2. Sebastopol 76.3

3. North Ballarat 87.6