Little motivation is needed ahead of a mouth-watering second semi final showdown between Sebastopol and Ballarat at City Oval with a spot in the McDonald’s BFNL Grand Final up for grabs.

Fingers crossed, fine weather paves the way for a potential classic, loaded with goals, high marking and fundamental brilliance, and all in front of a monster crowd.

According to the numbers, Sebastopol and Ballarat rank one and two for win / loss and offence v top four opposition.

The Burra has had the wood over the Swans (2-0) this season holding Ash Baker’s bevy to a modest 11 goals in both games. Can the Swans change the narrative?

As it stands, the reliance on key forward Biggie Nyuon (64 goals/15 games) getting the job done on the goal front is compelling.

The soon to be crowned Tony Lockett Medallist is responsible for a third of all Swans goals when he plays. Recent contributions from Paddy Simpson (7 goals last 3 games) and Fraser Perkins (9 goals last 4 games) on the goal front will have caught the attention of the Tony Lockyer camp behind the obvious threat in Nyuon.

The midfield battle looms a much watch in itself, both instrumental as avenues to goal.

Burra’s quartet Toby Hutt, Jack Bambury, Lachie Cassidy and man of the moment Felix Henderson could take the game away from the Swans.

Avoiding corridor mid Brad Crouch, ball magnet Tristan Maple (tag helps!) and the rebound presence of Alex Keath will be crucial to the Burras’ fortunes emulating their previous two head-to-head wins by 15 and 41 points.

Ruck talls Toby Hutt and Patrick Graham cancel each other out at stoppage leaving the feverish A grade midfield combos at ground level fighting for territory.

The Swans have some thinking to do and that’s not around contemplating a tag for qualifying final match winner Felix Henderson, that is a no brainer.

Lewis Rinaldi (cork), Riley Constable (quad) and Luke Dunstan (hamstring) all missed the Swans’ 33-point win over Melton in last week’s elimination final.

Baker has been patient timing the return of his players - expect no risks given the double chance nature of the second semi.

Another point of interest for the Baker camp will be the targeted match up for x-factor Burra forward Adam Forbes who has five and three goal returns to his name from their previous two meets (8/28 @ 28.5%).

Weather permitting, the stage is set for someone like Forbes leaving an indelible mark as food for serious thought in a fortnight’s time!

And finally, it would be remiss of me not to mention Lockyer himself - while it goes without saying, the 33-year-old remains the number one distributor out of the Burra’s back half.

For the record, the Burra has not won a flag since 1975, the Swans 2008. Get excited footy fans for a changing of the guard!

Other numbers of interest – top 4 v top 4 in isolation.

Sebastopol avg points FOR: 85.6 (#1)

Ballarat avg points FOR: 78.8 (#2)

Sebastopol avg points AGST: 76.7 (#3)

Ballarat avg points AGST: 74.5 (#2)

Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol

North Ballarat will start warm favourites against improving Sunbury despite the reality of a dreaded straights sets finals exit on the table.

While the minor premiers did a lot right in their narrow loss to the Burra in last week’s qualifying final there were areas for improvement according to coach Clint Proctor.

The Roosters frugal defence coughed up their third highest score of the season and their second in excess of 94 against the Burra in three meets.

Just on the Roosters’ defence for a moment, while they do rank #1 v top 4 opposition, there’s very little in it according to the numbers. In fact, North Ballarat’s average (points) concede is 74.4 per game, with Ballarat close behind (74.5) and Sebastopol (76.7) and Sunbury (80) to follow.

By the way, you can bin the theory of the Roosters being essentially a defensive team.

Since August 1^st, North Ballarat have played 4 teams in the top six for three wins, one loss averaging 82.75 points per game, giving every indication their game style has shifted.

For the 7 games prior v all teams (excluding Lake Wendouree) the Roosters averaged 60 points per game.

However, if there’s one team the numbers carry less conviction, it’s Sunbury.

The battle to get the Pride back together has been a season long ordeal dating as far back as their practice match against Montmorency - but the wait is officially over, the jigsaw near complete.

No less than eight Lions with VFL experience will take to Marty Busch on Sunday, asking questions of the Roosters mortality.

Of those eight, all are in ripping form and are surely to have their moment stepping up.

Jake Egan, Daniel Johnston, Cody Bramble, Tyson Lever, Jack Newitt, Josh Guthrie, Ben Cameron and Jordyn Gillard are names the Roosters need to put faces to and quickly, while the availability of Jake Sutton (Sydney VFL) is uncertain, adding further intrigue to this semi final decider.

The form of Sunbury has come to fruition over recent weeks, well worthy of a shot at a preliminary final berth.

A timely confidence boosting win over Darley plus wins over Ballarat and Sebastopol (twice) throughout the home and away series lays genuine claims for a Lions upset despite the Roosters winning their previous two head-to-head meets by 86 and more recently 29 points (Round 16).

The Roosters’ system under Proctor has matured with player growth and compliance.

While the Lions may have the talent on paper, they may find themselves a game or two short in continuity to overcome the Roosters despite last week’s dominance.

North Melbourne VFL listed Roosters ruckman Dave Brinker Ritchie is sure to have the largest say directing play around stoppage and will be an afternoon long problem for White and his assistants with his size, craft and follow up ability.

Sam Glover, Jai Lockett, Josh Morris, Isaac Lovisson and Brinker Ritchie will challenge the Lions aerially while their renowned pressure more broadly at ground level will be ramped right up to avoid the unthinkable.

Expect pesty, crafty forwards Jamie Quick and Declyn McGuigan to cause a few headaches too on the spill.

Sunbury are all-in and will acquit themselves well, not forgetting they were grand finalists last year.

However, after a few nervy moments I anticipate the Roosters will absorb and execute to plan, progressing to a preliminary final.

Other numbers of interest – top 4 v top 4 in isolation.

North Ballarat avg points FOR: 74.1 (#3)

Sunbury avg points FOR: 65.7 (#4)

North Ballarat avg points AGST: 74.4 (#1)

Sunbury avg points AGST: 80.0 (#4)

Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat