It’s been six years since Sunbury last defeated Ballarat on their home deck, but this weekend presents a prime opportunity to snap that streak.

The Lions will no doubt carry some extra motivation into this one, after the Swans crushed their 2024 finals hopes with a heartbreaking late goal in their last meeting.

Fresh off a dominant 48-point win over North Ballarat, Sunbury arrive full of confidence — and with the stats to back it up.

The Lions lead the competition for average disposals after three rounds, highlighting their control and work rate around the ground.

Statistically, these two sides match up closely across most key metrics: contested possessions, intercepts, clearances, and inside 50s are all neck-and-neck.

That means the game will likely be won in the finer details — discipline, execution under pressure, and conversion efficiency.

One area to watch will be the opening quarter.

Ballarat are yet to win a first term this season, while Sunbury have made strong starts a feature of their campaign so far.

However, the Lions have struggled to maintain momentum through the third quarter — a vulnerability the Swans will want to exploit.

Ballarat's ability to lock down in second quarters and close out games has been a hallmark of their unbeaten start.

Consistent performers like Lewis Rinaldi will again be central to the Swans' effort, especially if they can limit Sunbury’s ability to move the ball freely early.

If Ballarat can hold firm in the opening term and deny the Lions their usual fast start, they’ll give themselves every chance to maintain their unbeaten record. But if Sunbury bring the same intensity from Round 3, revenge may be on the cards.

Tip: Sunbury

Both Lake Wendouree and Darley have endured tough opening fixtures, each facing three teams currently inside the top six.

But while Darley have managed to find a way to win two of those games, the Lakers are still searching for their first victory of the season.

The Devils have built their early success on defensive pressure, conceding just 66 points per game on average.

Billy Myers has been instrumental down back, averaging 10 intercept possessions and 29 disposals per game — a key reason why Darley have looked so composed under pressure.

For the Lakers, the challenge will be stopping Darley’s slick ball movement and inside 50 dominance.

Rohan Brown’s crew have allowed an average of 112 points per game to opposition sides — a figure that will need to be drastically reduced if they’re to contain the Devils.

The midfield battle shapes as a key area.

With Brett Bewley and Nick Hind controlling the play for Darley, the Lakers will need to respond with run and spread on the outside.

Kynan Raven and co-captain Angus Gove will be crucial in trying to generate overlap and speed from stoppages to mitigate Darley’s contested strength.

Should Lucas Impey return for the Devils, his presence in the ruck could give them another serious edge.

He’s averaged 58 hit outs in his two games this season and adds VFL-level experience from his time with Williamstown.

History doesn’t favour the home side either — Darley have won their last four encounters against Lake Wendouree, with each of those wins coming by margins of 70 points or more.

It’s a big task ahead for the Lakers, but if they can apply four quarters of pressure and deny Darley easy entries, they’ll at least give themselves a chance to break the trend.

Tip: Darley

When these two sides last met in Round 13 last year, it was a cold, tough day for North Ballarat — managing just 1.7.13, their lowest ever score in the competition.

A far cry from the promising outing they’d had earlier that same season when they pushed the eventual premiers to within a single goal.

It's been eight years since the Roosters last tasted victory at MacPherson Park, and if they’re to break that drought and notch their first win of 2025, a lot needs to fall into place.

A lead at quarter time would be a crucial step.

North’s final quarters have been their achilles heel this season, scoring just 32 total points across their three fourth terms.

They'll need to build scoreboard pressure early and sustain it through three quarters to have any shot at toppling the reigning premiers.

One of the biggest challenges? Limiting Melton’s clean, structured ball movement — particularly inside 50.

The Bloods are averaging a league-high 19.3 marks inside forward 50, compared to North’s average of just 7.

That stat alone underlines the class divide when it comes to forward efficiency.

If North are to limit the damage, a big performance from Denver Grainger-Barras would be ideal.

His ability to read the ball and float across defensive contests, as seen in Round 2, could be key in cutting off Melton’s supply to the dangerous forward line.

Both sides are relatively evenly matched when it comes to contested possessions — which means the game is likely to be decided on polish and execution.

Melton's advantage in clean ball use, decision-making, and forward efficiency could prove too much unless North can apply relentless pressure and turn defence into quick, clean transition.

Tip: Melton

For Gary Learmonth and Tony Lockyer, 0-3 probably wasn’t the way they envisioned kicking off their 2025 campaigns — but for one of them, Round 4 offers the perfect opportunity to hit reset.

Sebastopol could be forgiven for their start, having drawn a brutal opening fixture against what is currently the top three sides on the ladder. Their clash with a fellow winless side in Redan couldn't be better timed as they look to kick-start their season.

Redan, on the other hand, have been hit hard by the injury curse they were hoping to leave behind in 2024. It's already forced Learmonth to reshuffle his squad and lean on some promising Under 18.5 talent to fill the void.

Sebastopol will also be without key leadership on the field, with coach and on-baller Tony Lockyer sidelined with an arm injury. His absence will be felt — particularly in a game likely to be decided in the contest.

Both sides rank at the bottom of the League for contested possessions after Round 3, making the midfield battle absolutely crucial.

Redan’s early game energy will need to be sustained if they want to avoid another second-half fade-out, while Sebastopol must weather that early storm and apply scoreboard pressure of their own.

Expect players like Ben Hutt and Rory Gunsser to be vital in stopping opposition entries.

The Burra have shown they can push the League’s best. The Lions have shown they can jump teams early. If Sebastopol can match Redan in the first quarter, they might just lay the groundwork for their first win of the year.

Tip: Sebastopol