Given what transpired at their last meeting it's hard to fathom visiting Sebastopol's chances of repeating the dose are slim at best.

Ironically it was barely 10 games ago the Burra were seemingly up and about heading into a final’s series on the back of a 22-point win over the Roosters.

Unfortunately for Tony Lockyer's group, barring the 80-point win over the Lakers in Round 1, Burra fans have had little to smile about.

And this week’s assignment doesn't get any easier for the Burra who head to Mars Stadium aiming to avoid a fifth straight loss.

The hosts deserve a forgiven run for their failings on the road against Sunbury last week for they were decimated for reasons beyond their control.

Any resemblance of Brendan McCartney's group to the one that downed the Devils in Round 2 or were within a goal of Melton will likely prove too much for the Burra who have had their own share of bad luck with injury and unavailability.

Given the current landscape McCartney will be just happy banking the win and seeing his players healthy with a response following last week’s disappointment.

And I expect them to do so against a Burra outfit completely bereft of confidence. What confidence they do in fact have will not be enough to trouble the Roosters on their home deck.

Lockyer is a realist, he'll be citing 'mini wins' throughout the afternoon to validate signs of improvement given an upset result is firmly in the 'highly unlikely' basket.

While the thought of the Burra slipping to 1-5 on the win/loss front and entrenched in the bottom three, the Roosters will be keen to return to the winners list themselves, avoiding the unlikely scenario going 2 wins and 3 loses come 5pm.

PLAYER WATCH
Brock Leonard (North Ballarat)
Enjoying break-out season with elite returns in most areas - disposals (26.8), Contested possessions 14.8), Handballs (13.2), Clearances (7.5), Inside 50'5 (4.8), Tackles (7.8), Turnovers (5.5), Ground ball gets (11).

Bailey Medwell (Sebastopol)
Shinng light in tough start to the Burra season. Ranks elite for disposals (23.8), Contested possessions (12), Handballs (13), Marks (7.2) and Groundball gets (8.6)

SCOOP’S TIP
North Ballarat

Who could forget the Kangas’ nail-biting upset win over the Bloods in last year’s Semi Final?

Well, Melton can.

A fresh set of eyes in the name of a coach into the 2024 season has re-invigorated a Bloods list determined to deliver on a range of new goals and KPI's from week to week, confident process will take care of results.

It’s hard to fault Troy Scoble in the infancy of his Bloods’ reign with the club’s unbeaten, superior percentage record from its opening four games.

Only North Ballarat gave them a scare getting within a goal despite the Bloods leading all day.

It's hoped more broadly the same challenges for the Bloods will come in the form of the Kangas because let's face it - only North Ballarat, East Point, Darley and Sunbury look capable, on exposed form, of upsetting Scoble's scrupulous plan.

Kangas’ coach Joe Carmody will be no stranger to the potency of the Bloods outfit especially forward of the ball.

Denying dangerous quartet Braedan Kight (25 goals, comp rank #1), Ryan Carter (12, #9), Kyle Borg (10, #13) and Ryan Davis (8, #15) opportunities around goal won't be easy.

Sure, the direct matchups will have a say, but it's the source, the providers that will determine this result - namely the midfield.

If, and only if, the Kangas midfield can win stoppage and clearance numbers efficiently enough to limit turnover can they be given a chance. And it's in this area they match up well against the Bloods - The Johnston brothers, Mikitja Rottumah-Onus, Alex Molan (if available) and Joe Dodd are more than capable of getting the numbers to warrant advantage.

It's how efficiently they avoid an unforgiving, rebounding Bloods half back line that will ask more their execution and decision-making abilities.

The Kangas have two primary threats forward, Strahan Robinson (14 goals, rank #5), and Bryson McDougall (12, #10) both of whom proved a handful at their last meet, on the back of an efficient midfield without Jordy Johnston.

The result will tell us more about East Point and their credentials after their horror first round failure against the similar opposition Darley, a month ago.

PLAYER WATCH
Braedan Kight (Melton)
Dangerous x-factor forward leading the Tony Locket Medal with 25 goals (4 games). Averaging just under 17 disposals per game means Kight is kicking a goal every 2.68 possessions (avg). Look out!

Matty Johnston (East Point)
Key driver in the Kangas upset Semi-Final win over the Bloods at their last meet. The classy midfielder is averaging 20 kicks, 13 handballs, 7 marks, 7 clearances and 5 inside 50's in 2024.

SCOOP’S TIP
Melton

Similar to the East Point scenario, this game’s outcome will tell us more about high flying Sunbury (4-0) on their home deck when they meet reigning premiers Darley (4-1).

The Lions have done everything right under new coach Matt White, making the adjustment to team planning and preferred structure look seamless.

Nonetheless, four games in is not enough sample size to get carried away with any forecasting just yet.

Let's see how the Lions perform under the pressure against the likes of Darley, East Point at Eastern Oval (Round 8) and league heavyweights Melton (Round 10).

I'm happy to give decimated North Ballarat a mulligan for their effort last week, due largely for health reasons.

So that leaves the Lions form with a win over Redan (25 points), Melton South and Bacchus Marsh.

In fairness, each of the Lions’ four wins have shown compliance and an heir of dominance that Devils’ coach Dan Jordan cannot ignore.

While Lions forward duo Jake Sutton (20 goals, comp rank #2) and Mitch McLean (13, #6) make up 44% of all Sunbury goals to warrant like for like attention, it's the efficiency of their defence that has seen the greatest improvement on last year.

Tyson Lever, Nathan Wood, Jack Newitt, Jack Hannett, Sean Reilly, newcomers Dean Muir and Jordan Tentonello make up an impressive back seven option and are clearly thriving under the team defence theory with high efficiency numbers.

Their ability to exit cleanly at low risk has been a feature- Wood, Hannett and Muir especially. You know what you're getting with Lever - essentially the licensed beneficiary to rebound pressured or bombed entries with his customary intercept mark game.

However, the likelihood of an experienced Devils’ midfield succumbing to the Lions intentions are slim at best.

In form trio Brett Bewley, Luther Baker and Matt Denham remain the competition yardstick of midfield combos and will stretch the Lions core for output with and without the ball.

The dominance at their two previous meets was palpable, two wins for the Devils by a margin of 40+ points.

Any midfield advantage for the Devils will equate to considerably more entries inside 50 to a feverish forward line eager to put a dent in the Lions new found levels of trust and confidence.

For the record, Sunbury (4-0) have won 15.5 of their 16 quarters to date (comp rank #1), Darley 15/20 (comp rank #3).

PLAYER WATCH
Mitch McLean (Sunbury)
Confident pressure small forward enjoying weight of Lions forward 50 entries. Kicked 13 goals from 4 games (comp rank #6)

Brett Bewley (Darley)
The reigning dual Henderson Medalist even had Lions fans in awe at his last trip to the Clarke Oval with 50 possessions and six goals out of the midfield. Ridiculous numbers!

SCOOP’S TIP
Darley

Expect Bacchus Marsh (2-3) to consolidate with back-to-back wins and square their win/loss ledger under new coach Dennis Armfield when they host the embattled Panthers at Maddingley Park.

Ironically, it was this corresponding fixture last year that Melton South won their only quarter of the season after leading the Cobras 3.2 to 1.5 at the first change in Round 9.

As it stands, since the beginning of the 2023 season Melton South have won just one of 80 quarters.

To be frank, this meeting gives every indication of how far for the Cobras.

Armfield will not be taking anything for granted as the Cobras remain a work in progress themselves striving for the complete four quarter performance under the former Carlton utility.

There were many encouraging signs for the Cobras witnessed on the road last week in the club’s big win over Sebastopol.

Surely the group needs little motivation to build on those habits in front of a home crowd given a likely win will see them inside the top six come 5pm ahead of their bye in Round 7.

The Cobras, as their form suggests, can vary from matching it with the best for periods by taking the game on with their encouraging run and carry with the ball and frantic pressure to a stagnant, insular brand Armfield is desperate eradicate.

Count on more of the 'positive' Cobras against the struggling Panthers, an all-in attempt to peak again with an eye toward adding another layer of belief and confidence that will prepare them mentally post bye.

Looking forward to seeing the potency, discipline and isolation of the Cobras front half and what that can amount to.

Surely the team first theme will prevail over the want of any individual's agenda and that be validated on the scoreboard.

Given the right service and weight of entries a compliant Cobras outfit could eye something in the 25-goal range on the scoreboard.

For Travis Hodgson's Melton South, another tough day at the office is expected but they can take solace getting more games into progressive young talent, remaining on the path of increased sense and purpose at the level.

PLAYER WATCH  
Dennis Armfield (Bacchus Marsh)
Despite his primary role as coach the former Carlton player is averaging a handy 16 disposals and 5.4 score involvements. Also 8 goals, 5 games (comp rank #14)

Cody Chapman (Melton South)
An injury interrupted start to the season has since witnessed a positive return for the Panthers Captain - above average for disposals (19) and elite for tackles (6.7)

SCOOP’S TIP
Baccus Marsh

Despite a 66-point loss to Darley last week Gary Learmonth’s young Lions will look to replicate their efforts from the last three quarters when they host Lake Wendouree at City Oval.

While the Lions will again be without a few prime movers, they're not short on quality young depth that can come in and fill a role.

At least 10 Under 19 eligible players including two Under 17s tested their mettle against the Devils and performed admirably. Enough to carry further confidence into this matchup against the winless Lakers.

Lions’ forwards Grant Bell (19 goals) and Marty Boyer (7 goals) will look to bounce back and fill their pockets after a tough day at the office in Round 5.

Expect them to be up and about wreaking havoc with a weight of forward 50 entries that will provide them with every chance hitting the scoreboard.

Tipping Lakers duo Brayden Helyar and Angus Gove might be set the task of containment. Both have enjoyed solid starts to their respective seasons despite the 0-5 narrative.

Lakers big men Tom Zampatti and Felix Fogarty will enjoy a distinct height advantage in the ruck in the absence of Taj Bond who is subject to availability with his Coates Talent League commitments.

Looking forward to seeing if Bailey Thompson can add to his innate ability of hitting the scoreboard.

The wiry forward/mid has 12 goals (comp rank #7) to his name from five games and has impressed.

Lakers’ coach Rohan Brown will be wanting a response from his midfield this week up against a youthful Lions combo with the exception of experienced campaigner Lachie George.

Both sides will again have the opportunity to explore the potential of their young groups in what should be an entertaining watch for those in attendance.

Unfortunately for the Lakers, the Lions look well ahead in the progress stakes, hence their unofficial warm favorites tag.

PLAYER WATCH
Rory Gunsser (Redan)
Excellent inside fifty kick averages elite for kicks (22.2) and inside 50's (5.2)

Will Clark (Lake Wendouree)
Ranks elite for average kicks (19) and turnovers (4.4).

SCOOP’S TIP
Redan