We're officially into the second half of the season now and the top six mix is just as intriguing as ever.

Scoop previews all the upcoming action in Round 10.

Remember the Bloods? Saturday will mark 21 days between hit-outs for the reigning premiers when they host Round 9 winners Ballarat.

Bloods’ coach Aaron Tymms had reservations about the nature of his bye allocation at the start of the season but given a recent run of injury and illness within the group, the break in hindsight has bordered on timely.

While important Bloods’ big men Liam Carter (calf) and Brett McIntyre (foot) prepare for a lengthy spell on the sidelines, the flag favorites are likely to welcome back midfield duo Jack Walker and Lachie Watkins who missed their 11-point Round 8 loss to Darley.

Newcomer and dasher Brady Rowles is a chance while Adrian Monitto is unlikely.

For the travelling young Swans, a golden opportunity presents - a chance to measure their levels of improvement in a real 'throw at the stumps game' against the competition benchmark.

Paddy Simpson has returned to full fitness following a shoulder complaint, teaming up with reigning club best and fairest Will Liston.

Marcus Powling continues to lead from the opening bounce and has had another ripping season while Andrew Hooper (24 goals), Rhys Perry (9) and Tom Mooney (7) are providing an aerial target forward.

Swans’ coach Chris Maple will need his boys up and about early and reminded of the home side’s dominance in third quarters.

Confidence levels for the visitors should be sky high after a breakout win over Sunbury, however, Melton at Melton are a different proposition altogether.

Scoop’s tip: Melton

Yes, that is correct, Darley finally returns home for their first of eight back ended games ahead of a likely finals campaign. But don't expect it to be all champagne and roses for the home side given Redan are in this game up to their eyeballs.

The Devils’ journey back to full health won't be complete for some weeks, opening the door for the seventh placed Lions to replicate their last season success at the Den.

Despite losing to third placed Sebastopol last weekend the young Lions, with a side including five eligible U/19 players, did win each of the last three quarters before finishing five points shy at the final siren.

On the flipside, the undermanned Devils failed to flatter, losing all four quarters at MARS Stadium. Dan Jordan's two trips to North Ballarat in charge of the Devils have ended in 78 and 57-point defeats.

It's unlikely the Devils will see a return of any players already sidelined, while the Lions could welcome back star mid Lachie George (back), joining in-form trio Daniel Bond, Izaac Grant and Cooper Craig-Peters with Nathan Dunstan in the ruck.

For all of Grant's work in his new role through the midfield, the once permanent half forward still has 20 goals in 2023, ranked seventh in the BFNL.

The Devils will need a spark beyond Brett Bewley, Shane Page and Matthew Brett getting it done. Who will stand up? They're capable of finding at least one or two, you can't fluke seven straight wins on the road without a genuine spread of contributors. It might be Darley, just, in a close one.

Scoop’s tip: Darley

The underdog Cobras will aim for a hattrick of wins when they host East Point at Maddingley Park.

Unfortunately for Jason William's men, up to five players will return to the Coates Talent Under 18s pathway competition from Saturday's 98-point win over Melton South.

Sure, the winless Panthers is not ideal form, but the importance of those young Cobras are impossible to ignore.

The Cobras would have been an outside chance with the inclusion of their Western Jets and GV Rebels affiliates given the Kangas have lost three of their last four, admittedly all against finals contenders, Sebastopol, Melton and Redan.

Plenty would need to go right for the Cobras to produce one of the upsets of the season. While they celebrated making it two on the bounce last week, you need only go the Cobras first half against the Panthers to suggest they're a fair way off challenging the Kangas, at present.

The Johnston boys are the obvious Kangas’ A-Grade talent Williams will need to curb to be any hope while playing coach Jackson Merrett is cruising under the radar hitting the scoreboard with nine majors in his four games.

Known duo Bryce McDougall (8 goals) and Brad Whittaker (16 goals - missed last week) will need some containing too, not mentioning the Kangas next wave of young talent who are more than capable - Liam Canny, Liam Howard, Jack Jeffrey and Patrick Hannaford to name four.

Containing the Cobras top end influence is the obvious task looming ahead for Merrett. Jake Owen with 16 goals for the season, Jake McCreery, who has been named in the best on five occasions and Luke Goetz in the ruck tick all the boxes.  

Scoop’s tip: East Point

Expect Sebastopol's stingy defence (comp rank #1) to deny the Lions forwards in a low scoring affair at Marty Busch Reserve.

Five times already this season has the Burra kept opposition to 57 points or less. If the visitors can't find avenues to goal, tipping a result in this game could be easier than first thought.

While the Lions disappointed on the road last week in their 26-point loss to Ballarat, coach Travis Hodgson would like their chances despite the home side owning the favorites tag.

They will miss their Captain Tyson Lever (foot) once again but will sweat on the availability of Essendon VFL listed player Harry Minton-Connell who missed for precautionary reasons last week with a hamstring complaint. Mitch Lewis will also miss.

On the other hand the Burra could welcome Werribee VFL listed pair Jay Dahlhaus and Jesse Clark to bolster stocks given the Tigers have the bye.

While Sebastopol assumed a majority of control in last week’s five-point win over Redan, they did lose three quarters, which must be of some concern.

Burras’ dual coach combo Luke Kiel and Michael Columbro will need to find suitable match ups for the Lions forwards. Fortunately, the Burra aren't bereft of options.

Like most, the game will be decided primarily at the coalface. Can Sunbury find enough impetus around the contest to deny the Burra on their home deck?

They clearly failed the brief against much younger opposition last week so expect a correction on intensity, especially early.

Despite the prospect of some major outs for the 'Burra ahead of Saturday, mainly Tony Lockyer with a cork, the home side should do enough to make it a seventh win of the season.

Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol

Expect North Ballarat to continue on their winning ways when they meet a one-win Lake Wendouree outfit.

Brendan McCartney's men are doing plenty right through the middle part of the season, never more so than last week’s 57-point demolition job of ladder leaders Darley.

The Roosters are in form, binding well with a feverish appetite to win the footy. Their top end players are in a purple patch of form and will look to improve in the coming weeks with the return of important utility Tom Hotchin from a 12 month layoff with an ACL injury.

Takeover Lakers’ coach Tim Shearer won't have to look far for the handful of Roosters laden with match winning talent.

Jamie Quick (32 goals), Riley Polkinghorne, Cam McCallum, Stewart Crameri and Werribee VFL listed Jack Riding head an unofficial top five, each in ripping form. But knowing is one thing, containing obviously another.

If the Lakers can match the trademark heat of the Roosters, maximum damage will be spared. It was encouraging to see Lakers’ duo Tom Zampatti and Michael Foster feature prominently in last week’s loss to East Point while you can bank on the week-to-week output from the O'Connell and Helyar boys.

Tipping the final score to resemble something similar to their last meeting in early 2022.

Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat

As we enter the back half of the home and away season, the return fixtures begin and Round 10 has thrown up plenty of intriguing encounters to keep an eye on.

There’s something about this match-up that favours the travelling side.

Remarkably, six of the last seven encounters between Bacchus Marsh and Redan have seen the away team leave with the four points – a stat that may just give Lions fans a sense of confidence as they head to Maddingley Park this weekend.

With both sides sitting outside the top six, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Bacchus Marsh dropped out of finals contention last week, now trailing North Ballarat by two points.

A win, pending results elsewhere, could see them jump straight back into the mix.

For Redan, the path to finals remains mathematically possible, but there's no room for error – every remaining game is a must-win.

Redan will need to address their forward line inefficiency if they want to stay in the hunt.

While they’ve been solid at generating inside 50 entries – an area where they have an edge over Bacchus Marsh – their inability to convert has been costly.

By contrast, the Cobras sit third in the league for goal accuracy, making them a dangerous opponent even with fewer opportunities.

Bacchus Marsh set the tone early in the meet, with a dominant first quarter, and it was a deficit Redan couldn’t claw back.

First quarters have been a struggle for the Cobras since, but it’s the final term that may prove decisive – Redan have faltered in the fourth quarter seven times this season, compared to just two for the Cobras.

Redan’s lineup will look different without Jake Short, but the return of emerging talent – like Jake Connolly – and renewed midfield strength should offer some balance.

Bacchus Marsh will back in their proven performers and hope their forward line can capitalise again.

In a competition where ladder positions are shifting week to week, this match could determine who keeps their finals dream alive.

With history, form, and urgency all playing their part, expect a high-stakes battle from the first bounce to the final siren.

Tip: Bacchus Marsh

Both Ballarat and Sebastopol head into this clash with everything to play for — one aiming to solidify a finals spot, the other fighting to keep its hopes alive.

For Ballarat, four points would create vital breathing room inside the top six, especially with the ladder tightening week by week.

For the Burra, wins can’t come soon enough. This matchup looms as one they simply have to take if they’re to remain in the finals conversation.

The visitors should take confidence from recent history.

Sebastopol has won four of their last five trips to Alfredton Recreation Reserve, and overall, it’s been a fixture dominated by the travelling team — with ten of the last thirteen clashes going the way of the visitors.

Ballarat will again be without key pillars in Biggie Nyoun and Harry Butler, both of whom have proven match-changers.

Emerton Hooper continues his run in the side, showing promise, while Noah Drever returns from injury.

Sebastopol, meanwhile, breathe a sigh of relief with coach Tony Lockyer cleared to play.

Cooper Littlehayes also looms as an important inclusion, having not played in the Round 2 match.

Littlehayes continuing to grow into senior footy and offering another avenue up forward.

The last time these sides met, Sebastopol dominated the first quarter — but then fell away badly, outscored 71 to 21 over the middle stretch of the game.

They can’t afford a repeat. A full four-quarter performance is non-negotiable if they want to leave Alfredton with the points.

With one eye on the ladder, this is a clash that will have consequences beyond just this weekend.

For Sebastopol, it’s a must. For Ballarat, it’s a chance to step closer to security.

Tip:Sebastopol

After a slow start to 2025, North Ballarat has found its rhythm – and with three wins in their last four matches, the Roosters are emerging as genuine finals contenders.

This Round 10 clash with East Point shapes as a crucial test.

East Point enters the contest with the wood over North Ballarat, having won six of the last seven meetings between the two.

The Roosters have also struggled historically at Eastern Oval, claiming just one win from their past seven visits.

But momentum can shift quickly in this competition, and North will be desperate to get the win.

The return of Riley Polkinghorne has added significant midfield punch to the Roosters.

Averaging 31 disposals and 10 clearances in his two games this season, his impact around the stoppages will be pivotal – especially up against East Point’s clearance specialists Micka Rotumah-Onus and Matt Johnston who will be looking to respond after a bruising loss to Darley.

For the Roos, rebounding strongly is non-negotiable.

Last week’s second-quarter fadeout cost them, and they’ll need a full four-quarter performance to keep touch with the top three.

The return of key defender Geordy Slater from injury comes at the right time, while veteran Joel Van Meel will have the solo ruck duties.

Despite their recent scoring woes, East Point still leads the inside 50s.

But with North Ballarat’s composed backline, including the likes of Denver Grainger-Barras and Isaac Carey, making the most of forward entries will be critical.

With both sides jostling for position in a congested top six, this clash is more than just a home-and-away fixture – it’s a test for finals intentions. Expect nothing less than a fierce contest with September implications.

Tip:East Point

Darley enter the second leg of a three-week tough run, facing off against fellow top-four contenders.

After a dominant Round 9 performance, the Devils look primed to take on Sunbury in what looms as a genuine September vibe.

Both teams are all but locked in for finals.

They sit first and second in the competition for both points scored and points against – meaning we could be treated to either a scoreboard shootout, likely via the likes of Will Johnson and Jake Sutton, or a defensive shutdown led by Billy Myers and Tyson Lever.

Recent history favours Darley, who have won six of their last seven meetings with the Lions.

However, Clarke Oval has traditionally been a stronghold for the home side, and with Sunbury in red-hot form, this contest could be incredibly close.

The stats sheet does little to separate the two.

Sunbury have the edge in clearances, while Darley narrowly lead in inside 50s.

Both sides average high disposal counts and rely on structured ball movement to control games.

When they last met, it was a powerful second-half surge from Darley that proved the difference.

Matt White’s Lions will be looking to flip the script this time – not just starting strong but sustaining it against a Darley outfit that finishes well.

Will Johnson’s recent goal form continues to be a threat, kicking four in each of his last two matches and six the last time these sides met.

Lucas Impey’s return after a spell adds further depth to the Devils.

For the Lions, Josh Guthrie’s consistency will again be key, while Jake Egan will be hungry to make an impact after being kept quiet in their last encounter.

With very little separating them on the ladder and finals implications looming large, this will set up the winner for a prime run into the second half of the season.

Tip:Darley

With the top end of the ladder as tight as it’s been all year, wins alone won’t cut it for Melton — percentage is now a serious part of the finals equation.

And while a clash with the winless Lakers might look straightforward on paper, this one carries more weight than meets the eye.

Lake Wendouree pushed the Bloods for large parts of their Round 2 encounter, with one goalless quarter ultimately inflating the margin.

That performance still stands as one of the Lakers' most competitive this season — and they’ll take belief from knowing they can match it in passages.

A welcome addition for the Lakers is Flynn Loader, returning from the QAFL.

Loader’s presence brings a lift for the young group.

His last game in Lakers colours came in 2023, and his return couldn’t be better timed.

Melton comes into the game with minimal changes from their previous meeting with the Lakers.

Captain Jack Walker is back in the mix, though Jordyn Cotter’s absence will be noted.

The Bloods continue to struggle somewhat at clearances, giving the Lakers a small window to generate forward pressure — but they’ll need to be clinical, especially given Melton’s strength in intercepting and rebounding, led by Harrison Hanley.

Finding space and targets forward of centre has been a persistent challenge for Lake Wendouree.

If Jackson O’Brien and the rest of the young forward line can begin to turn contest into opportunity, it’ll go a long way in keeping them in the contest — or at least in setting benchmarks for growth.

For Melton, the goal is simple: win big and tighten up the areas that will matter in finals.

For the Lakers, it’s a chance to test themselves against one of the competition’s best — and use the halfway mark as a yardstick for their progress.

Tip:Melton

Come 5pm Saturday each team will have played each other once, giving supporters a true indication of where their club is at on the BFNL table as we pass the halfway mark of the season.

The Swans will enjoy a return to their own deck and a match-up against similar opposition when they host the Cobras.

Both sides, clearly aware of where they're at, will be eyeing a potential eighth place finish on the table - essentially the 'next best' below the main body of teams.

Tipping there won't be much in this game at the end, but the home ground advantage must lean to the Swans on the back of their 26-point win over Sunbury in Round 9.

Matchups won't be too difficult for either side to ascertain given the stand-out consistencies from both teams top end talent.

Swans’ mid Wil Liston proved he was not out of place at Interleague level, especially with an inspirational second quarter that helped the BFNL back into the game, turning a quarter time deficit into a half time advantage against the talented Hampden League.

Bacchus Marsh too had a sole representative, Jack Parente, who was appointed vice-captain behind Redan star Izaac Grant.

Parente, a co-captain of the Cobras at just 20 years old was similarly courageous as Liston over his high minutes game in defence.

The Swans will need a match-up for Jake Owen (16 goals) as the Cobras will Andrew Hooper (26 goals).

The dual in the ruck between Luke Goetz and Michael Powling should be a ripper while at ground level, Swans youngsters Liston and Paddy Simpson go to head-to-head with more seasoned bodies in Jake McCreery and Tyson Shea.

If both sides can nullify avenues to goal, this game will come down to the second tier of options getting it done on the scoreboard and weight of forward 50 entries.

It builds to be a close one, where both sides will have their chances and look the winner at some stage.

Scoop’s tip: Ballarat

All signs point to Redan being a game clear, entrenched in the final six after a successful visit to Melton South this weekend.

While the Lions have lost two of their last three, their win on the road over Darley in Round 10 gave every indication they're a genuine part of the finals conversation.

With Lachie George, Lachie McLean, Liam Hoy and Harry Lawson still to return, the Lions best bares no ceiling passing the halfway mark of the season. Given their proven depth quality, it really is soldier in, soldier out for the Lions at the moment.

Under new coach Gary Learmonth, Redan have two wins against top six opposition (Darley, East Point) and five wins for the season. A sixth win looms against the winless Panthers.

The hosts will have enjoyed last week’s selection and efforts of Cody Chapman and Mitch Fino in the newly introduced Under 23 Interleague concept under Carlton great Anthony Koutoufides.

Both boys validated their call-ups with contributions worthy of radar attention from opposition clubs moving forward - a timely boost in an otherwise long season for the Panthers.

Take your pick of who may get off the leash in front of goal for the Lions, it could be any of Izaac Grant, Grant Bell, Will Madden or Marty Boyer.

Scoop’s tip: Redan

Despite two losses on the bounce heading in, expect Sunbury to resemble some form closer to their best when they return home to meet East Point.

The Lions will be buoyed with the return of inspirational leader Tyson Lever (foot) and midfielder Mitch Lewis (overseas), not to mention a rejuvenated half dozen Under 23 BFNL representatives from last week’s success over the Hampden League.

Yes, Fraser Ampulski, Jake Egan, Jake Sutton, Harrison Minton-Connell, Cody Brand and Riley Miller all played significant roles in the league's meritorious 16-point win.

Not to be outdone, East Point duo Liam Canny and Liam Howard also featured prominently in the result.

The return of Lewis, joining Minton-Connell and Josh Guthrie in the middle provides every chance for the Lions to take it up against the class of the Johnston brothers, Matty and Jordy, and the crumbing ability of Joe Dodd who has worked his way back into some good form after missing early with injury.

It wouldn't be a surprise if the Kangas did get the job done, you're never sure what version of Sunbury you're going to get.

The visitors are more than capable of kicking a winning score on the road despite the new full time midfield role for proven goalkicker Jordy Johnston.

The Kangas have five players with 10 goals or more already in 2023 (20-B.Whittaker, 16-L.Canny, 13-J.Jeffrey, 11-B.McDougall, 10-J.Merrett) while the Lions just three (23-J.Sutton, 15-C.Brand, 12-L.Brennan).

Strangely, on the confidence taken by those six Lions interleague reps and performances along with the returns of Lever and Lewis, that alone is enough to sway the advantage in favour of the home side. Just.

Scoop’s tip: Sunbury

The Burra won't have a better opportunity downing the wounded Devils at the Den when the two sides meet for the first time since Round 1 last year.

Last time around it was the highly touted Burra losing to the 2021 wooden spooners, a completely unexpected result despite the Devils’ off-season appointment of experienced coach Dan Jordan.

Theorising just how the Devils can get it done is trumped by the strength and quality of depth the previous two-time runners up possess.

Expect Burra quartet Tony Lockyer, James Keeble, Ryan Noether and Grady Snowden to return after missing their Round 10, 27-point win over Sunbury.

How Darley can find a way through Sebastopol's #1 ranked defence will be Jordan's greatest challenge.

Only Melton (four times), North Ballarat and Ballarat have had their way with the Burra over their previous 20 games. The form reads a treat and holds up against any opposition that is not Melton.

Lockyer, Riley O'Keefe, Luke Kiel, Jack Bambury, Hugo Papst and Graydn Snowden make up an enviable back six for any side in regional Victoria let alone the BFNL.

The Devils look a mile off their drought breaking, Round 8 winning performance over Melton on June 3rd.

Some may have thought 'mountain peak' conquered - a short sighted reality to the fact they're merely at base camp as subsequent defeats to North Ballarat and Redan have proven.

The timing of the Devils return to full health will go a long way determining their reach in 2023, but a win against the odds, ahead of schedule will only enhance belief.

On the flipside, a win for the visitors consolidates second position on the ladder with games against Lake Wendoure and Melton South to follow.  

Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol

Reigning premiers Melton will have played one game in 35 days when they host Lake Wendouree this weekend.

But don't let that confuse you, coach Aaron Tymms will have warmed to the break, giving his 'niggle effected' charges enough rest to take on a back-to-back flag mission, replicating East Point's 2018-19 achievement.

The Bloods monstered the Swans in Round 10 with the inclusions of star duo Brenton Payne and Jack Watkins for their first games of the season.

It's unsure when they'll be seen again due to their Port Melbourne and North Melbourne VFL commitments but the Bloods on the whole look back to their best.

We're likely to see confirmation again of that nature against the Lakers. Bloods duo Brady Rowles and Adrian Monitto are not far off a return and could be nursed back for a hit-out as early as the Lakers game after lengthy layoffs.

Young guns Kyle Borg and Conrad Farrugia should be brimming with confidence after solid performances at Interleague level representing the Bloods and will look to carry that form into the latter half of the season while the Lakers’ sole selection Flynn Loader looked dangerous for the BFNL in the front half to warrant a match-up for Tymms.

The Lakers’ faithful will be looking forward to observing the progression of young bigmen duo Felix Fogarty and Tom Zampatti.       

Weather will determine degrees of separation on the scoreboard but if the Lakers were to come close to halving the margin from their most recent encounter, coach Tim Shearer would have been privy to some resistance from his group.

Scoop’s tip: Melton

A number of big clashes await in Round 11 with teams striving for a finals berth set to test themselves against genuine September outfits.

If it's any consolation for the Lions ahead of the weekend, they'll face a Bloods outfit a handful shy of their best 22 with Riley Walker (jaw) and Jordy Cotter (ankle) the latest pairing set for a stint on the sidelines.

While it's clear the top five sides have a clear edge on the remaining six, one spot in the finals is up for grabs.

Given that very little percentage separates those in the running for sixth, Redan won't be rolling over easily and will take it up to the flag favorites for periods.

Can the Lions get bang for buck for their forward 50 entries in the absence of Riley Walker and Cotter?

Grant Bell is on a ten-game stretch returning multiple goals while newcomer and Geelong VFL listed talent Lachie Bond will provide a headache for the Bloods’ defence.

Marty Boyer and Lachie McLean are not shy around goal either and will keep the visitors honest.

Despite injuries to a key few, the Bloods remain the team to beat regardless of any BFNL opposition.

The emotional toll of last week’s nail-biting win over Sunbury can play out in two ways.

One, they're well on the way to at least another minor premiership and no team will stand in their way - or two, there is a chance of a flat performance given the nature of what has transpired.

Whatever the scenario, you would be brave to tip against them.

Not me. 

SCOOP’S TIP
Melton

The winless Panthers will endure the second of back-to-back top five assignments when they host North Ballarat at Melton Recreation Reserve.

Both sides have had their fair share of bad luck on the injury front and will look for a response from their respective depth stocks who will be given an opportunity.

Star North Ballarat midfielder Riley Polkinghorne suffered a nasty ankle injury in the second quarter of last week’s loss to East Point and is set for a period on the sidelines, joining fellow playmakers Jamie Quick and Tom Bromley-Lynch.

Credit to the undermanned Roosters hitting the front against East Point in the last quarter before the Kangas were able to steady and kick away late.

While the absence of Polkinghorne will not affect this coming result, the nature of the predicted percentage boost may have taken a hit.

Just 'how far the Roosters?' has been quelled somewhat with the absence of key personnel.

Travis Hodgson's Panthers showed a bit last week against the Devils with their 'top end' players all making a contribution leading one of the youngest sides seen in the BFNL for sometime.

And they will need to produce again to avoid a 20-goal plus defeat.

Even with injury, you know what you're going to get from the Roosters - a feverish appetite for the contest and a well-structured set-up behind the ball that makes it hard for opposition to score.

Given the Panthers’ average less than 30 points per game, surpassing that return will be a challenge.  

Roosters’ coach Brendan McCartney will be hoping to get through unscathed and be looking for his players to develop on good habits ahead of the back end of the season when everything starts to heat up.

North Ballarat's double-up's post the interleague bye includes Darley (A), Melton (H), Bacchus Marsh (H), Ballarat (A), East Point (A) and Redan (A). 

SCOOP’S TIP
North Ballarat

Sunbury head to Ballarat for a fourth time already this season, to take on the Swans at Alfredton Oval.

Lions coach Matty White would have been proud of his boys last week despite their narrow loss at home to Melton in arguably the best game of the year.

So, for the touring party it's not about rebounding or a response needed against the Swans, rather more of the same that has earned them an impressive seven win season and third spot on the BFNL ladder.

There's enough body of work seen from the Lions giving every indication they're the real deal and you know what you're going to get.

With the off-season addition of quality personnel and spike in performance of players who were already at Sunbury, the future looks bright - not dissimilar to the age profile of Melton that took them to the 2018 Grand Final before the crowning glory achievement of 2022.

For Chris Maple's Ballarat another challenge in the form of top five opposition presents and what an opportunity that is in front of home fans - a chance to measure yourselves against the pointy end.

So far for the Swans however, the challenge has proven beyond them.

Some mini-wins here at home will be the order of the day starting with the one non-negotiable - effort.

For without effort, surely the balance sheet of potential mini wins becomes null and void.

The Swans sit in sixth spot on the ladder with an asterix of vulnerability next to their name.

They along with Redan, Bacchus Marsh and Sebastopol are in a fight for the elusive sixth spot.

If the Swans want to rid themselves of the asterix and potentially making up the numbers come September, an honourable loss is the least we can ask of a group not shy on talent.

SCOOP’S TIP
Sunbury

Don't expect Darley to have it all their own way when they host the Lakers on Saturday.

Rival coaches have gone on the record complimenting the one-win Lakers on their endeavour for long periods that culminated with an impressive 174-point win over Melton South in Round 9.

Rohan Brown's travelling party will be looking for further improvement off the bye, up against top four opposition.

While it's never really a good time to get Darley at Darley given their recent home record, coach Dan Jordan would be the first to concede the Devils have a bit of work to do recapturing the aura of last year.

So regardless of the two sides separation on the BFNL table, weight of progress will surely be measured in the aftermath.

Just what that looks like for Brown and Jordan is likely to remain 'in-house' but for those of us on the outside, the scoreboard will tell enough.

Did the Melton South game flatter the Lakers? They looked very good on the vision, playing a large part of the group into form for an assignment against a Devils outfit still trying to find their best.

Containing the Devils’ top end talent will be an afternoon long struggle for the developing Lakers who should embrace the experience.

While Brett Bewley and Billy Myers are the obvious trump cards expected to have the greatest influence, Jordan's challenge remains getting a deeper spread of contributors, preferably out of the Devils’ 'bottom half'.

The Lakers’ talls will keep the Devils honest.

Tom Zampatti, Jaydyn Wright and Felix Fogarty make up a healthy spine through the middle and forward of the ball.

Hybrid forward and Lakers’ leading goalkicker Bailey Thompson keeps hitting the scoreboard regardless of the opposition and is likely to have earned the respect out of the Devils’ camp with a designated match up.

Not sure what version we're going to get of these two sides. Darley will surely do enough, but how far?

Will the Devils impress with a tick forward in the right direction or can the Lakers back up their recent efforts by keeping the margin in check, something they've failed to do at Darley Park their previous two visits.

SCOOP’S TIP
Darley

The Kangas will start warm favorites making it nine wins in a row when they host the Cobras at Eastern Oval.

It's been six years since the Cobras have enjoyed success at the venue and given the sample size of the season to date, don't expect the pattern to change.

The Cobras’ slim chances hang on the availability of premier ruck Luke Goetz who is a genuine barometer for the team, leading with his positivity by voice and proud example with action.

A tough afternoon looms for the Cobras given the depth of talent and form held by the hosts. Just who you target with a match up or run with role is a guess given they've up to 10 players worthy of thought.

The Kangas’ midfield bats as deep as any in the comp and will look to assume control early against a Cobras’ outfit without veteran Tyson Shea and Goetz (doubtful).

The Johnston brothers, Mikitja Rottumah-Onus lead a healthy band at the feet of underrated competitor Joel Van Meel who continues to hold his own for long periods in the ruck with barely a rest.

As if the Cobras’ concerns weren't restricted to the A-Grade midfield talent of the Kangas, the make-up of the hosts forward line poses another quandary for Dennis Armfield and his staff.

Given the plentiful assets at Kangas’ coach Joe Carmody's disposal, maybe Armfield goes down the track of using Saturday as another opportunity to shuffle the magnets, a variation on what we already know.

Maybe there's a better version of the Cobras best 22 and their most suitable positions. Who knows?

What we do know however, is that the Cobras will be stretched by the Kangas to the point where the touring party is left with little choice but to experiment.

Finding the right combination for the Cobras to score, defend and maintain possession between the arcs remains a work in progress jigsaw.

While it's likely the Kangas winning run will continue for at least another week, let's hope for Cobras fans it's an encouraging step in the right direction on the development front. 

SCOOP’S TIP
East Point

We head into another tantalising weekend of footy action as Round 11 serves up a number of big contests that are set to shuffle the very makeup of the home and away ladder.

Despite Sunbury having taken the honours in their last four clashes with Redan, there’s always been a sense that the maroon and gold Lions haven’t been too far off the pace.

The margins – 27, 25, 31 and 26 points – tell the story of a competitive rivalry that hasn’t quite swung Redan’s way in recent times.

Ironically, the four matches before that were all wins to Redan, each by around the 20-point mark.

If form lines are anything to go by, these two clubs always find a way to keep it close –even if the scoreboard tells a slightly different story in the end.

Redan’s season hasn’t followed the script they’d hoped for.

Injuries have taken their toll and consistency has been hard to come by.

But there’s a real chance to reset here.

Back on home turf, and with Jacob Short returning to the line-up, Redan has a valuable opportunity to spark a second-half revival.

His experience will be crucial in steadying a young side still searching for rhythm.

When these two met on Good Friday, Redan pushed Sunbury early but couldn’t sustain the effort across four quarters.

Sunbury’s strength this season has been their accuracy – ranked among the best in front of goal – while Redan has often let themselves down.

If Redan are to give themselves a chance, they’ll need to convert every shot and make the most of their time inside 50.

For Sunbury, this is a game they simply cannot afford to drop.

Sitting among the top four with fierce competition around them, every win matters.

Expect them to be sharp, focused, and ready to capitalise on any Redan lapse.

It’s been a tough run for the home side, but if there’s ever a week to stand up, this is it.

Tip:Sunbury

This could well be a match between two teams destined to play a (very) major final later this year.

It was the season opener the last time these two met, where Melton – despite a goalless third term – played their composed and consistent brand of football to take a 12-point win.

For those who like patterns, wins have come in bunches of 3s and 4s between these teams since 2011.

Melton scored three on the trot, followed by Darley (3), a draw, Darley again (4), then Melton (4), Darley (3), and now Melton has won the last four.

The venue holds no fears for the Bloods either, having won four of the last five times they've played the Devils there.

Just past the halfway mark of the competition, both sides have dropped just one game. Melton’s only loss came at the hands of East Point.

Darley’s came in Round 1 – to the Bloods.

Michael Edwards led the way on the scoreboard last time with four goals, while Jaycob Hickey was a standout for the Bloods. Expect both to be influential again.

Since that round one clash, Darley have looked like the team to beat. Their strength through the middle – Luther Baker, Nic Hind and Brett Bewley – has given them the edge in clearances.

Melton’s forward line will again be a focus. Braeden Kight, Liam Carter and Jordan Kight give them a strong contested marking presence. The Bloods will want to make every inside 50 count.

Top spot on the ladder is up for grabs. With the table shifting week to week, every win matters – and this one’s no exception.

Tip:Darley

There’s a fair bit of weight in this one.

Ballarat currently sit fifth on 18 points. North Ballarat slipped to seventh on 14, with Bacchus Marsh sandwiched in between on 16.

Assuming Bacchus Marsh take care of Lake Wendouree, a Ballarat win likely sees them take a finals spot. A North Ballarat win? They leapfrog the Swans, their percentage doing the heavy lifting.

It’s a must win for both.

Their season opener ended in a draw — and a lot has changed since.

Biggie Nyoun and Mal White were standouts last time. Both are missing from the sides now.

If the Swans are to claim four points, efficiency inside 50 will be key.

They trail the Roosters in this area, and with Denver Grainger-Barras in form, clean entries will be crucial.

Andrew Hooper has been the Swans' go-to in front of goal, but he’ll need support from Jack O’Brien and Luke Gray to hit the scoreboard.

For the Roosters, last week’s blowout aside, they’ve shown finals-worthy form.

Despite a tough start and an injury-hit list, Clint Proctor’s group have begun to gel.

They’re winning enough ball and giving themselves every opportunity.

It’s one of the biggest games of the round — and the top six could look very different depending on the outcome.

Tip: North Ballarat

These two sides enter today’s clash with very different objectives – Sebastopol desperate to keep its finals hopes alive, while East Point aims to cement a top-two spot.

It’s been all East Point in recent meetings.

The Roos have claimed the last four encounters between the clubs, including their Round 1 meeting earlier this year.

That game saw Sebastopol finish strong with a six-goal final term and saw Hugo Papst open his account for the season with a massive seven goal haul.

Micka Rotumah-Onus was a standout for East Point that day, and his absence from the side this weekend will be a noticeable gap – especially with his impact around the clearances.

The Burra will need to find a way to compete in the ruck, where they’ve been well behind this season.

Lach Cassidy and Tony Lockyer will need to be fierce at the fall of the ball, with the Roos likely to dominate first use.

Joel Van Meel remains the key for East Point in the middle – and if he can link consistently with Joe Dodd and Matt Johnston, the Roos' spread and speed will be hard to contain.

Up forward, Bryson McDougall continues to make an impact.

He slotted five goals the last time these two met and has found form at the right end of the season.

Keeping him quiet will be high on Sebastopol’s agenda.

This game means everything for the Burra.

They’ve been up and down, but their best footy has shown they can match it with strong opposition.

A win today could re-ignite their campaign, and history gives them a glimmer of hope – Sebastopol have won two of their last three clashes with East Point at Marty Busch Reserve.

For East Point, it’s the kind of game they simply have to win.

In a top-four race where percentage and consistency are key, these are the match-ups they’ll want to bank, especially with other contenders breathing down their neck.

It’s a test of belief for the Burra, and one of discipline for the Roos.

Tip:East Point

Bacchus Marsh has won six of its last seven against Lake Wendouree.

Encouragingly for the Lakers, three of those six losses came by ten points or less – a reminder that on their day, they can compete.

The two clubs are evenly matched historically, both sitting on 27 wins apiece, with the Lakers holding the slightest edge at home.

The last time these two met, the Cobras ran out 53-point winners – but it was far from a perfect outing.

The Lakers actually kicked their highest score for the season that day, and if not for a sluggish opening term, it might’ve been a much smaller margin.

Expect them to take some confidence out of that and come into this clash looking to attack early and stay in the game for longer.

Jake Owen had a day out in that last meeting, finishing with seven goals.

Angus O’Keefe or Angus Gove are likely to get the job on him this time around – a big ask, but one that could have a huge impact on the game’s outcome.

The Cobras’ path to finals remains wide open, but they can’t afford any missteps.

A win here keeps them in the hunt and builds important percentage in what’s shaping up to be a tightly contested bottom half of the top six.

For Lake Wendouree, it’s not just about chasing a win – it’s about continuing to find scoreboard pressure and getting reward for effort.

They’ve shown patches where things click, and if they can string together four quarters, they’ll back themselves in to cause an upset.

There’s plenty on the line for the Cobras. For the Lakers, pride, progress, and the chance to shake up the ladder.

Tip:Bacchus Marsh

As we head into the abbreviated second round of matches, the bottom five sides get another opportunity on Saturday to measure progress on their first meet with a cheeky eye on manufacturing a major upset against five sides currently inside the top six.

The Cobras owe coach Jason Williams and their fans a buy-in this week when they host competition benchmark Melton at Maddingley Park.

When you're not expected to win, you can go about the task in two ways - accept the likelihood of defeat and play accordingly or 'dig in' and have a crack. At least, provide some resistance with a pride in the jumper performance.

The Cobras effort won't be judged on win or loss, for the Bloods have won 30 of their last 34 games, an amazing achievement.

For the same period the Cobras have won 13. So even with their backs to the wall, the Cobras can impact.

Win a quarter or win a half will be the 'real' expectations on the Cobras who are likely to play in front of a big crowd.

It's the perfect segue ahead of the clubs Round 13 local derby against Darley.

The Cobras top end talent would surely get a game with the powerhouse Bloods so it's not beyond the realms of possibility the hosts can push the ladder leaders for a half as they did against Sunbury in Round 7, when they led by four points at the half.

Melton on the other hand are cruising and will look to put this game to bed early. Their benchmark status has proven intimidating for struggling teams allowing Aaron Tymms’ boys more often a win on their own terms far too soon.

Scoop’s tip: Melton

Given the stark contrast of fortunes of these two sides, it's difficult to mount a case for the winless Panthers making an impression on the fifth placed Lions at Clarke Oval.

The rejuvenated Lions returned to their best last week with an 80-point thumping of East Point and welcomed the return of top end talent duo Tyson Lever and Mitch Lewis.

And don't underestimate the confidence build of no less than six Lions who featured at Interleague level a fortnight ago - all made significant contributions in the win over the Hampden League.

That theory was confirmed immediately after strong performances against the Kangas from Harry Minton-Connell, Jake Sutton (five goals) and Cody Brand.

Unfortunately for the Panthers there'll be nowhere to hide on the wide expanses of the Clarke Oval.

Expect the Lions leg speed advantage on the spread to equate to scores the longer this game goes.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse for the Panthers on the injury front, the loss of inspirational leader Cody Chapman (hamstring) only compounds the situation and heightens the degrees of difficulty avoiding a loss in excess of three figures.

Who gets the job for the Panthers on dangerous Lions forward Jake Sutton makes for interesting discussion in the aftermath.

Keeping the Essendon VFL listed talent to eight goals will be a fair effort given a genuine lack of depth at the Panthers and the likelihood of a landslide in forward 50 entries.

Scoop’s tip: Sunbury

Swans coach Chris Maple and his young group have an opportunity to correct on its disappointing Round 6 loss when they meet North Ballarat at Mars Stadium this Saturday.

While most have the Swans winning chances slim at best, Maple can take some confidence into the game knowing his boys have won three of their last four games, including a top six scalp with a win over Sunbury.

The trip to Mars Stadium looms a timely footy audit for the Swans, a real chance to measure improvement against one of the best 'home' performing sides of the last three seasons.

Brendan McCartney's 14-3 record at 'Mars' since taking the reins at North Ballarat in 2021 is impressive and is likely to remain in good stead.

It makes you wonder if McCartney and North Ballarat really needed the bye last week, for they were flying.

No doubting they would have been well educated over the break for an assault on the back half of the season, so look for the Roosters to start well as they so often do.

For the Swans, believe, hang in and assess at the break. Where to start the match-up conversation for Maple's hierarchy is an unknown given the Roosters VFL player affiliations. Maybe adopt McCartney's theory that "matchups are a thing of the past".

Spend more time trying to win the game than saving is easier said than done. Tipping North Ballarat to be very hard to beat for the remainder of the season.  

Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat

East Point will look to bounce back when they head to City Oval for a meeting with legitimate finals contender Redan.

It was said some weeks ago, seven teams don’t go into six finals places, so one of these teams will have to miss out.

But when you look into the draw, the Kangas have so much more at stake.

After this weekend, the Lions have, on paper, the pick of the draws with North Ballarat, Lake Wendouree, Ballarat, Melton South and Sebastopol to come, essentially just two meetings with top six sides.

The Kangas on the other hand have Melton, Ballarat, Sebastopol, Lakers and North Ballarat, three of your current top six meets.

Getting it done on Saturday will be an ideal launching pad for Jackson Merrett's crew who sit a game and percentage outside the six.

The potential fall-out with finals chances on the line will be dealt a severe blow in the event of loss. But they're more than blessed with the talent to overcome the Lions despite their 13-point loss on Eastern Oval back in Round 6.

Merrett will have had little time for learnings on last week’s defeat against Sunbury given the nature of the loss and may have afforded his boys a 'mulligan' for indifferent performances from a young group are seldomly avoided.

The top end talent at the Kangas led by the Johnston brothers will need to be at their best to topple the mounting depth of the Lions.

Containing in-form Redan duo Isaac Grant and Marty Boyer who combined for 34 shots on goal last week would be a good place to start. 

Scoop’s tip: Redan

While the result for many looms inevitable, there's still plenty to gain for warm favorites Sebastopol when they face the one-win Lakers at Marty Busch Reserve.

Sure, the Burra have only lost three games for the season but recently they give every indication they're shy of their best.

Luke Kiel and Michael Columbro's men have won just one quarter in each of their games against fellow top six opposition Darley (loss), Redan (win), North Ballarat (loss) and Melton (loss).

Exceptions lie only in their three-quarter win over Sunbury and their 'hang on' win against Redan. But you get the drift, wanting more from the highly talented Burra.

And they're more than capable. In fact, a drought breaking premiership would not surprise and getting back to resembling the best version of themselves could be kick started this weekend.

Conditions didn't help last week against the Devils in fairness, but what else can you expect from weather in July.

Expect a steely focus from the visitors today and added buy-in from the players sounding a clear warning to the Lakers - be prepared! 

Staying in the game for the home side will be easier said than done but an improvement on their 15 point tally in Round 6 is a must, a mini win if you will given the final margin is likely to favour the visitors, comfortably.

Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol

The action is back after the interleague weekend and sides will have their sights firmly locked on to the backend of the 2024 season.

Plenty will need to go right for Sunbury avoiding a fourth loss in five games when they face Melton for a second time in 21 days.

Who could forget the nailbiting conclusion of their Round 10 meet at the Clarke Oval when Bloods' wingman Kyle Borg put the flag favorites in front just moments ahead of the final siren?

It's hard to push the argument that any have in fact, paving the way for a highly anticipated sequel.

It's often thought the sequel rarely usurps the original but the BFNL Match of the Round crew will be there to bring you all the action LIVE from 2pm Saturday.

While Bloods' defender Riley Walker is expected to return, intercept king Jordy Cotter (foot/ankle) will continue his rehab with an aim to return ahead of finals.

On the flipside, Sunbury have had a relatively good run with injury up until their Round 8 loss to East Point and have had to shuffle the magnets since which has been unsettling, equating to three losses from their last four games.

The Lions most recent 22-point loss to the Swans was no fluke when you look at the numbers in isolation.

Sunbury were beaten in near all KPI's and denied their usual uncontested brand - 51 uncontested marks (down 29 on their season average), marks inside 50 (down 6 ), disposals (down 46), clearances (-16),centre clearance (-8), inside 50s (-25), tackles (-25).

Well done Chris Maple pulling a rabbit out of a hat with all respect, given it was the first win for any side outside of the top five against top five opposition.

The win / loss record for bottom six teams v top five teams is now W1 L29.

A correction from the Lions camp on the numbers front will NOT necessarily guarantee Matt White's pride a winning result against a steely Melton combination that will ask questions of the entire group with and without the ball.

Not dissimilar to Round 10, Sunbury will have their opportunities but can they match the ladder leaders with bang for buck hitting the scoreboard?

Tipping you'll see a host of defenders featuring in the best for the winners, denying potential match winning forwards a day out on their own terms.

Scoop's tip
Melton

The one-win Lakers should hold little or no fears facing the Cobras at Maddingley Park if the last six weeks represents an adequate sample size.

Both sides had their respective first round bye and have won six of their last 20 quarters, four of those coming against bottom side Melton South.

The Lakers, like the Cobras, have just the one win for the period but have a slight percentage edge (72% v 64% last six weeks) adding some weight to the 'winning chance' conversation, albeit on the road.

The Cobras learnt quickly of the importance of big man Luke Goetz (ankle) in his recent absence.

While a return is predicted by some this week, it's far from set in concrete.

Veteran mid Tyson Shea will miss again asking more questions of a young Cobras midfield still finding their way.

I like the thought of dual Cobra BFNL Interleague representatives Isaac Nixon and Rhy Penny up onto a wing in a change up with ferocious leader and coach Dennis Armfield to spend some time behind the ball getting a birds-eye view how his chargers go about it.

Nixon and Penny are fresh off 19 disposal, confidence building performances against the Hampden League and would provide the necessary aerial presence and run with and without the ball to impact this game - shoring up the side gates if you will with a 'Beware of’ sign.  

Needless to add a lot of the Cobras fortunes will rest on the returns of ever consistent forward Jake Owen (23 goals, comp rank #8, in best 6/10 games). Expect Brayden Helyar to get the job.

The Lakers have some aerial presence of their own and will be tough to hold out if conditions suit.

Jaydo Wright, Felix Fogarty, Tom Zampatti, Ben Hayes and leading goalkicker Bailey Thompson (22 goals, comp rank #10) can all take a grab and provide an avenue to score.

Joel O'Connell, Angus Gove, rebound defender Kyle Anderson and exciting 16-year-old Lincoln Koliba will ensure the Cobras are made to earn a fourth win of the season. 

In a 50/50 game, geography had the final say given the Lakers’ struggles away from home.

The Lakers have lost their last 11 games on the road by an average of 74 points including a 92-point defeat here last year.

Scoop’s tip
Bacchus Marsh

If Darley has any legitimate aspirations for a top three finish, a win over North Ballarat is a must.

The Devils will have every opportunity getting the job done over a touring party minus a handful of prime movers including x-factor forward Jamie Quick (ankle) and midfield duo Riley Polkinghorne (ankle) and Brock Leonard (concussion) who have proven a mainstay in pressure and accumulation numbers with and without the ball.

Former Cobra Joel Freeman is expected to debut in Roosters colors having just beat the clearance deadline and will provide a dual pronged aerial target alongside Stewart Crameri (1 game, 2 goals) and opportune forward Ned Nash (20 goals, comp rank #11).

Just how the Roosters find a way denying in form Devils midfield trio Brett Bewley, Luther Baker and Matt Denham will be an afternoon long problem for Brendan McCartney and his support staff.

Bewley and Baker especially feature among the top five ball winners in the comp and should thrive in the absence of Polkinghorne and Leonard.

McCartney has little alternative but to focus on the 'what haves' and will need his boys to deliver on their trademark pressure if they're to overcome the Devils who would be well aware of the importance banking the win given remaining 'double up' matches against top three giants East Point, Sunbury and Melton are still to come.

While it will be a 'one week at a time' mission for Dan Jordan and his crew finding their best, there's no denying the Devils top three chances hang in the balance for the here and now.

For North Ballarat, given their 'outs', a win would surely be their most satisfying and deserving of the season, whilst leaving the door ajar on a potential top three finish of their own.

Key Roosters Tom Bromley-Lynch, Simon McCartin and Cam McCallum are expected to return while Devils trio Wil Johnson, Adam Azzopardi and Mitch Ward continue their rehab on the sidelines for at least another week.  

Scoop’s tip
Darley

The Kangas would have fond memories of their last meet against the Burra, a Round 3 encounter that essentially kickstarted their impressive nine game winning streak.

A six-goals-to-one second half under the lights at Eastern Oval was enough to instill the belief and momentum in Joe Carmody's group that sees them now just percentage shy of ladder leaders Melton.

So why the dominance?

The Kangas’ numbers reel ahead of the 'double ups' is compelling, enough to see them with their best chance of winning a flag since their back-to-back achievement of 2018 and 2019.

Carmody's marching band rank #1 for scoring efficiency, centre clearances, groundball gets, marks inside 50 and behinds - rank #2 for kicks, contested possessions, overall clearances, spoils, goals - rank #3 for handballs, contested marks, marks, ball-up clearances, forward 50 tackles, disposal efficiency (kicks and handballs) and rank #4 for disposals.

Pretty impressive, not to mention five players in the top 27 goalkickers including two of the top nine - Bryson McDougall (36 goals, rank #3) and Strahan Robinson (23 goals, rank #9).

So where do you start when you're Burra coach Tony Lockyer trying to tame the flying Kangaroos when one of the biggest struggles of your own team has been scoring?

Well Lockyer is an experienced leader who will narrow the focus of importance. Given where the two teams are at in the context of their respective seasons, Lockyer will be looking for a simple buy-in on the process, hopeful a response from his group will equate to having in them in with a prize fighters chance at three quarter time.

Falling shy of the necessary buy-in would see the Kangas waltz on their merry way to a comfortable tenth win and remain on track for an all-important double chance amid a very even season at the top.

Scoop’s tip
East Point

A cracking game looms at City Oval with the result almost certain to play a role shaping the final six even this far out.

While the thought of finals will be underplayed by these two respective coaches, the lure of the number six spot in the September action will not be denied by fans.

Sure, the two opponents are in the development phase given their age profile but that hasn't stopped the Swans causing the upset of the season to date as recent as Round 11 over third placed Sunbury.

But, as has been the case for a large portion of the season, the Swans’ ability to back up their solid efforts from quarter to quarter let alone game to game has been an ongoing challenge for coach Chris Maple.

For Swans fans, let's hope the win over the Sunbury Lions proves a line in the sand moment and the beginning of something resembling closer to the cliche ambition of consistency.

Hosts Redan today are 0-6 against top six opposition with all four of their season wins coming against the current bottom four. The importance of a win today, bucking the trend would be an understatement and not beyond reach of the Lions. 

The similarities between the two sides around scoring set the tone for another nailbiter despite the Swans having won an extra game and a 10 percent advantage on the BFNL table.

Redan have had two shots more on goal for the season, averaging 4.4 points more per game confirming the like-for-like match up.

The Swans (17.5/40) have won half a quarter more than the Lions while conceding an average of 15.6 points less per game.

All relevant numbers given each team in the BFNL has played each other once.

Looking forward to the battle of the midfield brigades.

If Lions’ pairing Khy Jess and Lachie George can turn their high number territory gains into score involvements, the hosts will prove a handful.

Who will Maple send to GFL listed player Lachie Bond? Angus Bade looks a likely match-up allowing attacking defender Lachie Dalgleish to play a role in the genesis of transition.

Trying conditions are expected, a challenging day for all – both on field and for the decision makers off it.

Flip of the coin game.  

Scoop’s tip
Redan

The action returns on Saturday after the Interleague bye, and Scoop is back to preview an all-important Round 12 with the ladder well and truly in the balance.

Bacchus Marsh has two very good reasons to earn the premiership points when they host North Ballarat at Maddingley Park.

Favourite son Tyson Shea will play his 300th game over a career spanning 20 years at the level in the red, yellow and black as the club prepares for their most important game in the context of their season.

Cobras’ coach Dennis Armfield will be fully aware of the stakes and has every reason to be blooming with confidence on the back of four of his young guns playing a significant role in the BFNL’s win over the Hampden League last week.

Silky mover Josh Huxtable (Under 23 Men’s Interleague Best on Ground), Rye Penny, Isaac Nixon and Jack Kovacevic all hit the scoreboard and were instrumental in many other chains that led to scores. 

Add those four to the more experienced hand of Jake Owen, Luke Goetz, Jake McCreery, Jamie Fulton and Shea, the Cobras line-up reads every bit formidable and capable of earning a finals berth.

Confidence and belief are a contagious variable - with it there's no ceiling, without it you're vulnerable, cherry ripe for the picking.

Starting well is a must for these two sides stimulating those variables.

The Cobras are in form, beat the Roosters at their previous meet in round five and should hold no fears, let alone motivation getting up for the milestone occasion.

Ironically Shea played his 200th against North Ballarat at Maddingley Park in 2018 but it was the Roosters who won comfortably.

So, what say of the 2025 version of North Ballarat under new season coach Clint Proctor.

Enigmatic is a word that springs to mind.

Clearly their best is very good, having finished within three points of Melton.

The Roosters’ four season wins have come by no less than 26 points, but losses of 48 points (Sunbury) and 78 points (East Point) suggest the gap between their best and worse is significant.

Unfortunately for Proctor, he will have to get the job done without Jamie Quick (jaw) and Brock Leonard (concussion) whose seasons are done while Denver Grainger Barrass services will be required at Carlton VFL this week on the back of his recent good form

Both sides have spent time outside the top six and have managed to work their way back into the finals conversation currently 5th (Bacchus Marsh) and 6th (North Ballarat).

Consolidation awaits the winner, and much needed breathing space from a swarming pack all wanting to feature at the business end.      

Scoop’s tip

Bacchus Marsh

Melton will look to narrow the focus enroute to finals aiming to amp up their connection and efficiency when they host Redan at MacPherson Park.

Unfortunately, the Bloods will have to do it without key mid Jaycob Hickey (lower leg) who sustained a potential season ending injury at training ahead of the Interleague weekend.

While it's disappointment for Troy Scoble and his clan, spare a thought for Redan coach Gary Learmonth who has had no luck at the selection table since the season began.

While there is less external expectation on Redan's chances featuring beyond the home and away series, they should provide an ideal hit-out for the reigning premiers who are travelling a little shy on last year’s lofty returns.

For example, we're not even 12 rounds in and the Bloods have already lost 18.5 quarters (58%-win rate per quarter), a far cry from their 53/64 (83%) success rate in 2024.

Take the numbers with a grain of salt if you like, but there's no denying the Bloods are gettable.

On the flipside, Learmonth is sick of the honourable loss conversation and has been on the front foot voicing his disappointment having not taken a top four scalp yet despite their lowly ladder position.

The Lions led the Bloods at half time of their first meeting this year in Round 5 and will look to replicate that for longer as they welcome back Lachie George, Harry Lawson, and Rudie Forde.

Learmonth’s young group are 0-5 in games against the top four at the moment, averaging a reasonable 32-point loss per game - hardly a hiding.        

Scoop’s tip

Melton

Stakes loom large for the winner of Saturday's Match of the Round in the form of third place on the BFNL table.

Host East Point currently sits third (36pts, 132%) and Sunbury fourth (32pts, 151%)

Given what we know of the top six pathways come the business end, one could be forgiven preferring to finish third instead of one or two on degrees of difficulty alone.

Needless to add, finishing fourth makes it extremely tough for ultimate success.

The Lions had their way with the Kangas back in Round 5 on the back of an eight-goal final quarter blitz that saw Jake Sutton boot five goals over a 30-minute period!

It was a remarkable conclusion to the game given the Kangas led narrowly at three-quarter time.  

Gun midfielders Mikitja Rottumah-Onus (East Point) and Josh Guthrie (Sunbury) will miss the top four clash but essentially cancel one another out given they're similar impact players, for one reason or another.

Kangas’ duo Liam Howard (hamstring) and Jack Jeffrey (glute) were late outs for the BFNL Interleague game last week and will be a watch on the track proving their fitness.

Expect Coburg VFL listed forward Daniel Johnston to be available for the Lions despite a three-goal return at the penultimate level last week.

Coburg have the bye leaving the Kangas with a double headache in their back half, not mentioning the goalkicking ability of Jake Egan who dominated their Round 5 meet.

Johnson, Sutton and Egan make up 53% of all Sunbury goals in 2025.

Kangas coach Joe Carmody will need to spend some time orchestrating a response to the last quarter fade out of Round 5.

Does Jordy Johnston (19 goals, in best 10/11) play forward or will the Kangas opt with Jacob Brown (21 goals) to provide an alternative threat alongside Bryson McDougall (26 goals).

While it's a nice problem to have, only hindsight will tell us whether they got it right!

Scoop’s tip

East Point

Despite a 10-game winning streak for the travelling Devils, coach Dan Jordan won't be taking any result for granted when they take on the Swans at Alfredton Oval.

'Complacency' and Jordan simply don't get along as the 2023 premiership coach looks to take his group to another level as we approach the final third of the home and away season.

If the Swans are going to threaten, they will need to recapture their run and carry brand that has deserted them in recent weeks having lost four of their last five games by an average of 40 points.

It's a big ask for Swans’ coach Ash Baker to implement a plan at the coalface denying inform Devils trio Brett Bewley, Nick Hind and Luther Baker.

One of the biggest improvements to the Devils arsenal has been the ability of their midfield hitting the scoreboard.

The trio and pinch hitter Andrew Azzopardi make up 32% of all Darley goals in the opening 11 rounds.

The Swans task will be made more difficult in the absence of marquee recruit Biggie Nyuon (syndesmosis) who could of provided the aerial means forward to test the competitions number one ranked defence.

Hitting up Jack O'Brien (10 goals) and Andrew Hooper (18) has been a clear focus of the Swans in Nyuon's absence, but the quality of supply has denied them.

Scores of 50, 38 and 41 in reasonable conditions validates the Swans struggles of late.

The Devils better start getting used to playing footy in Ballarat with three of their remaining seven games played up the highway, let alone finals.

Time for the Devils to get back to work and the Swans to earn back the respect that took them to within a whisker of landing a berth in last year’s preliminary final.

Scoop’s tip

Darley

Sebastopol must win, and win well, to keep their finals hopes alive when they head to CE Brown Reserve for a meeting with the winless Lakers.

The Burra will look to cash-in, despite the predicted cold conditions, with the intent to narrow the gap between their points for and against variable.

Currently their percentage sits at 86%, 14% shy of North Ballarat (6th) and 22% adrift of Bacchus Marsh (5th).

Given the Roosters and the Cobras go head-to-head this Saturday, the Burra could be just two points away from North Ballarat or a game behind the Cobras by the end of the round.

But let's not forget a three-win team in the name of Sebastopol should not be taking anything for granted.

Sure, the Lakers haven't won a game, but they have won 7/44 quarters this season so the importance of the Burra putting this game to bed early is paramount.

Not dissimilar to North Ballarat, the Burra has had their fair share of peaks and troughs on the result front but cannot afford to faulter.

In fact, failing to take care of the Lakers will mean season over for Tony Lockyer's men as a number of crucial unofficial elimination finals present in the back half of the season.

While the fortunes of Sebastopol to date have been subject to injury and availability, the scenario is not dissimilar to that of the Lakers.

Unfortunately, it has denied the Burra a game or two and impacted the 'better for longer' ambition of Rohan Brown's Lakers.

Both sides have a quality spread of impact players, but you can't deny the depth of the Burra group.

The calibre of O'Keefe, Cassidy, Bambury, Lockyer, Papst, Forbes, Littlehales, Toby and Ben Hutt, Hommelhoff, Wilkinson and Widgery are an adequate dozen that just roll off the keyboard suggesting their best is more than capable matching it with the best.

The Lakers won't be handing the premiership points over without a fight.

Tom Zampatti, Joel O'Connell, Angus Gove, Jaydo Wright, Lincoln Koliba, Kyle Anderson and Bailey Ryan, not to mention a proud coach, will lead a group that will make sure of it.  

Scoop’s tip

Sebastopol

A number of heavyweight battles headline Round 13 with plenty of match ups set to determine the look of the ladder as we head into the pointy end of the season.

Despite the anomaly of the Kangas’ Round 1 failings, Joe Carmody's group will start warm favorites turning the tables on the Devils at Eastern Oval.

Since their 96-point wakeup call at Darley Park, the Kangas have taken all before them marching their way through a 10-game winning streak, beating every side bar Dan Jordan's touring party in the process.

For some Kangas, the loss to Darley will be a distant memory but for some it will feel like yesterday given the four-quarter obliteration.

But what a formidable side East Point have become under new season coach Joe Carmody - some rival clubs and players have gone on the record to say they're the best they've seen so far in 2024.

A win for Darley on the road given the form of the Kangas would be arguably Dan Jordan's biggest win outside of finals and the clubs’ seven-year, drought breaking win over Melton in Round 8 last year.

If the 'just going' Devils are still in the game at half time, the numbers suggest their challenges have only just begun.

Post Round 1, East Point's second half returns have been ridiculous.

For third quarters the Kangas are W9-L1 (348-96) averaging near 35 points (for) while conceding less than 10 (9.6) for the period.

Final quarters are just as impressive for the Kangas icing the cake having W9-D1-L0 (298-145), averaging near 30 points (for) and a miserly 14.5 against. The one-sided nature of the Kangas’ second halves equates to W10 L0 (646 pts FOR, 241 pts AGST) - essentially a seven goal advantage.

Darley's task will be made even tougher in the likely absence of star playmaker Billy Myers (calf) who was unsighted after half time in the club’s 12-point win over North Ballarat.

Myers joins Wil Johnson, Adam Azzopardi, Mitch Ward and Jack Bewley on the injury list, an area East Point have been blessed with since the season opener.... until now.

There are concerns for Joe Dodd (dislocated knee), Deng Lual (leg), Geordie Slater (leg) and Strahan Robinson (minor calf) getting up for the BFNL's Match of the Round, leaving the door slightly ajar for the visitors.

I'm not sure the Devils can get it done with their outs, limited avenues to goal and season long struggles for connection unlike their 2023 premiership year, but you can guarantee a Dan Jordan mentored and Brett Bewley (41.8 avg disposals - comp rank #1) led crew will have other ideas.

The Kangas’ top end are all in career best form - Matty Johnston (36 disp avg - comp rank #2), Jordy Johnston (18 goals, 7.4 marks, 6 inside 50s, 10 score involvements), Bryson McDougall (43 goals - comp rank #2), Joel Van Meel (comp rank #1 for hits to advantage 10.8), Jackson Merrett and Jacob Brown (average 17 marks between them in the back half - comp rank #1 and #4 for uncontested marks) and Mikitja Rottumah-Onus (25 disp - 7 clearances).

SCOOP’S TIP
East Point

A young Roosters outfit will endeavour to end the Bloods’ six game winning streak at Mars Stadium this Saturday as Melton head up the highway.

Brendan McCartney would be the first to concede it’s a mission easier said than done despite the Roosters’ impressive record at home.

Only East Point (twice), Melton and Ballarat have been successful at the venue dating back to the start of 2022.

Unfortunately for McCartney's group, injuries and unavailability of key personnel will make it tough tp deny the Bloods a seventh win on the trot.

It won’t be without some minor concerns for the Bloods with the absence of Jordy Cotter, Jono O'Brien and Ryan Davis.

Not dissimilar to last week, expect North Ballarat to will this game into an arm wrestle for as long as possible and minimise the damage the Bloods can inflict given an (uncontested) game on their own terms.

The Bloods are so well set up behind the ball, structurally sound and thriving in a period 'all on the same page'.

Forward, they're dynamite at the moment, in rare air, posing a five-pronged attack who rarely miss their opportunities.

The Kights, the Carters and (push forward) winger Kyle Borg are finding isolation aerially and at ground level to swoop and score far too easily.

Can McCartney and his band of inexperienced soldiers find a way to stifle a recurrence? I anticipate they will for periods but for the long haul, albeit four quarters will be a tough ask.

The effort the Bloods brought to the table in the last quarter of last week’s 77-point win over Sunbury was that of a team on a mission with an unquestionable work ethic.

There was simply no let up as the Bloods kicked the last four goals of the game to put the icing on the cake.

Their premiership credentials this far out are compelling.

McCartney has been on the record making us acutely aware over recent seasons, around this time, there's still 'a long way to go'.

In fact, Melton had lost just the one game at this stage last year adding a sense of deja vu to the conversation.  

The Bloods won't find it easy to shrug the resistance of the hosts, East Point and Darley more recently can attest to that.

Somehow, undermanned North Ballarat hit the front in the last quarter against the Kangas and were within a goal late of the Devils before falling 'respectfully' short.

Consider the evidence a reminder for Bloods’ coach Troy Scoble who will take no prisoners regardless of opposition or where they're situated on the table - it's all part of rendering the mission complete.  

SCOOP’S TIP
Melton

Sunbury host Redan in a must win game for both clubs given their recent records.

These two sides have lost four of their last five games. Sunbury will be desperate to keep their top three credentials alive while Redan's chances of pinching a spot in the finals action hang by a thread.

In a battle between the Lions in the 'East' and the Lions in the 'West', just who is the hungrier of the two prides and more methodical in the stalking of their prey will surely earn the all-important four premiership points.

With Darley and North Ballarat starting underdogs this round against East Point and Melton respectively it's the ideal opportunity for Sunbury to bounce back.

A win could see the Lions of the 'East' (Sunbury) return into third place come 5pm Saturday, and they should get it done especially on their own territory.

But you can't dismiss the visitors and their agenda with a top six finish still on the cards - just!

Gary Learmonth's group need a win against a team above them if they're to feature.

At the moment seventh placed Redan are W0 L7 against the top six teams. Winning at the Clarke Oval has been a tough assignment for any BFNL touring party regardless of ladder position.

Only Melton (four points) have been successful.

Questions will be asked of Redan as Sunbury welcome back overlap runner and link man Mitch Lewis onto a wing.

Given the size of the Clarke Oval you can't downplay the importance of the wingmen, they're essentially an extension of the midfield.

Expect the former Port Melbourne utility to improve the general makeup of the Sunbury lineup who were without Jack Hannett, Nathan Wood and Jake Egan in last week’s 77-point loss to Melton.

Jordan Tentonello should be fine to go after a 'corky' left him lame on the sidelines for last week’s second half.

Redan's struggles to score are a massive concern given the talent that is in their front half.

The Geelong VFL listed Lachie Bond will appreciate the room at Clarke Oval and be keen for a breakout game alongside more than capable trio Grant Bell, Marty Boyer and Lachie McLean.

Mobile ruckman Rudie Forde is showing great promise and should welcome the big ground giving Khy Jess and Lachie Bond a chance to better a Sunbury midfield that has had its colors lowered in recent weeks against Melton (twice), Ballarat and East Point.

However, I expect in-form Sunbury forwards Jake Sutton and Mitch McLean will prove an afternoon long handful for the Redan defence and arguably the difference in the game come 5pm Saturday.

SCOOP’S TIP
Sunbury

Bacchus Marsh will look to bounce back to the winner’s list when they travel to Melton South this weekend.

After showing periods of promise equating to three wins from their opening six games, the Cobras remain winless post their bye having lost their last five games.

The recent struggles for the Cobras hitting the scoreboard will give the Panthers a live chance recording their first 'quarter win' of the season.

Ironically, it was against the Cobras last year the Panthers recorded their only 'quarter' win of the season.

Since the Cobras’ Round 7 bye, goal returns of nine, six, eight, three and seven have provided them with little chance acquiring an elusive fourth win.

But the perfect opportunity to buck the trend presents in the form of the winless Panthers who average 150 points against per game.

Expect experienced campaigner and tireless key Jake Owen (25 goals - comp rank #7) to feature despite a deliberate match-up from former coach Travis Hodgson who has huge respect for the former Cobras’ captain.  

The Panthers will be refreshed after a week off and buoyed by the recent contributions of Cody Chapman, Mitch Fino and Broden Collins at interleague level that should instill the group with some confidence to take it up to the struggling Cobras for periods.

While Hodgson looks for mini wins from his embattled group, expectations will be much greater out of the Cobras camp led by playing coach Dennis Armfield.

This Round 13 match-up will provide Armfield with the perfect stage to resemble more of the style of footy he wants his group to play.

Failure here to replicate on a simple plan of demands from the former Carlton AFL utility would compound the recent frustrations for a group not shy on talent or will to play for the jumper.

It's all about regaining continuity and connection for the Cobras this weekend.

A spike in enjoyment levels surely follows with compliance, as process takes care of the result, culminating with an overdue rendition of the victory song in smile and unison.

SCOOP’S TIP
Bacchus Marsh

Forget their Round 1 meeting, Lake Wendouree are in with a real live chance upsetting Sebastopol at CE Brown Reserve.

The Lakers consolidated their recent signs of improvement with a 29-point win over Bacchus Marsh ending an 11-game run of outs on the road.

'Run of outs' is probably an understatement given their average 'away' loss for the period was 74 points.

Welcome back!

Excited Lakers’ coach Rohan Brown will embrace the challenge against a Burras outfit playing above their three-win season return.

After a horror run with injury, Tony Lockyer’s group are beginning to resemble more of the Burra we're familiar with having taken it up to third placed Darley and more recently second placed East Point.

On both occasions, despite eventual loss, the improving Burra have been within striking distance at the final change.

Not to be outdone, the Lakers were within 25 points of the Devils at three quarter time before the reigning premiers corrected their errant ways in front of goal.

Regardless of the final margin the Lakers did crack in which has been a common theme from rival coaches in the aftermath.

The consensus on the Burra has been equally as encouraging, implying Lockyer's group will trouble a few more fancied runners on the way home.

If that is to be the case, you would think a win over a spirited Lakers is more likely than not. But certainly not the 'given' that was expected in Round 1.

Both sides are on the up, disparity far less than we've seen recent years.

The Lakers should hold no fears for the Burra but must learn good habits around repeat efforts from week to week rather than settling for a monthly celebration in song.

It's time to embrace the next level with work rate, buy-in and consistency. The reward is palpable, we saw what it meant for the group last week.

This match will tell us more about the Lakers and their progress. Can they reproduce and raise the bar?

I guarantee Lockyer and Sebastopol will come ready to test the waters...   

SCOOP’S TIP
Sebastopol

Round 13 Football Preview with 'Scoop'

With an even third of the home and away season remaining, Round 13 dishes up some all important clashes set to determine the run home to finals.

This next chapter in this time-honoured local derby will tell us more about Bacchus Marsh in the context of their season, ahead of a timely footy audit against the ladder leaders.

The Cobras are travelling well at the moment having won their last three games, averaging a fraction over 30 scoring shots per game.

Given they're up against the competition’s number one ranked attack and defence, making the most of opportunities going forward will be crucial to their winning chances.

Despite the Devils’ 11 game unbeaten run since the season opener, Cobras’ coach Dennis Armfield and his leaders should have the genuine belief this assignment is not beyond them.

At their last three meets at Darley Park the difference has been no more than 12 points giving every indication the ground should hold no fears for the visitors executing a plan.

In fact, it should be easier for Armfield to implement given the broader dimensions of Darley Park than their narrow home over the bridge at Maddingley.

Forward of the ball the Cobras are humming with leading goal scorer Jake Owen (54 goals) and improving support cast Isaac Nixon (11), Josh Huxtable (19) and Jake McCreery (16) adding to the offensive weaponry.

The four-pronged attack make up 66% (100/152) of all Cobra goals this year.

With up to seven (favourable) changes expected for the Cobras from their previous meet in Round 3 and the Devils a little light on in retrospect, the timing for Armfield is ideal.

Furthermore, Cobras big man Luke Goetz remains the competition's number one ranked ruckman for hitouts and those to advantage.

Given the Cobras are 0-4 against top four opposition this season, at an average losing margin of 29 points, bucking the trend will require a significant peak in performance.

The Devils are blessed with an in-form, five-star midfield, a-grade defenders, x-factor leading forwards and progressive role players, validating their current standing at the top of the BFNL ladder.

A win for the Devils will surpass their previous best of 11 games straight under Dan Jordan.

The 2023 premiership coach is under no illusions every win will be made to earn having seen firsthand against the Cobras despite his 6-1 head-to-head advantage.

Scoop’s tip

Darley

The reigning premiers sit in third place on the BFNL ladder with an enviable 9-3 record ahead of their Round 13 meeting with Sebastopol.

Under Troy Scoble, the Bloods have won 27/31 games and remain in the box seat for a crack at back-to-back flags despite losing their last two games.

The reality is, it's just hard going again after ultimate success.

It's never the same, from the playing list, the health of the playing list, staying in the present and improving the output from week to week.

Coaches from all leagues and levels have gone on the record acknowledging repeat flags are a tough ask.

Scoble would agree his group have endured some of those struggles post their 2024 success.

On Saturday the reigning premiers have the opportunity to 'get back on the bike' against a side they have had the wood over for some five years or more.

The visiting party, led by Tony Lockyer will consider themselves a real live chance but will have to get it done on the road against Melton who strangely haven't won a game since June 21st. 

The Bloods should have an invigorated thirst for that winning feeling, so don't expect the Burra to receive any favours.

While the Bloods’ list has been knocked around for the most part with injury and unavailability, Scoble and his group won't be looking for that excuse to justify their means moving forward.

While the Bloods haven't done much wrong, losing three games by less than a goal, there's enough evidence, scoreboard aside, they're not travelling as well as their all-conquering 19-1 season of last year.

The Burra will be quick to pounce assuming the hunters tag, knowing they have a season of their own to keep alive.

The return of Luke Kiel and Jed Hill makes the assignment (on paper) a little more achievable - let's hope they don't get the second up blues back from injury.

The form of Hugo Papst (25 goals) provides the x-factor talent forward for Lockyer's group not seen since James Keeble's 35 goal season of 2022 - star quality.

The Bloods couldn't lose three in a row, could they?

Scoop’s tip

Melton

Unfortunately for North Ballarat, the aura of Mars Stadium has gone, and through no fault of their own.

Once considered a 50/50 game, odds weigh (for the here and now) in Sunbury's camp, given the unpredictable nature of the 2023 grand finalist's selection issues around injury and unavailability.

The reality is, Sunbury, once battlers on the road in Ballarat should have little difficulty earning the points against the up and down Roosters who are seemingly at a selection table beyond their control.

The Lions are three wins and a loss (+171) involving games in Ballarat in season 2025.

They took it up to flag fancy East Point last week at Eastern Oval despite the absence of Josh Guthrie (ankle-season) and Cody Bramble (ACL-season) while Dean Muir and Brock Landt remained overseas.

Lions’ coach Matty White conceded (paraphrasing) they were their own worst enemy at times with their inability to make the most of their opportunities and expose East Point, who were without any rotations for the second half.

Again, while sounding like a broken record, the Lions are heavily dependent on Jake Sutton (42 goals) delivering once again.

Such is the calibre of the Essendon VFL product I can't see the Roosters denying him another day-out especially if Coburg listed big man Daniel Johnston returns.

Predicting what 22 the Roosters will be made available is a 'throw at the stumps' guess, hence my leaning to an improved performance from the Lions, enough at least to walk away with the points.    

Scoop’s tip

Sunbury

Who says Redan can't make it two top four scalps in as many weeks?

It would take an almighty effort for a relatively young group to back up their come-from-behind win over reigning premiers Melton in seven days, stay in the moment and deliver against the might of East Point who find themselves a game clear in second, with enough motivation to fight for a golden opportunity, top two finish.

Sure, the numbers suggest the Kangas are 22 points less potent away from home in 2025, but when you consider they've won their last 14 games at Eastern Oval, it should come as no surprise.

Weather permitting, the ask of the Lions to be in the hunt, in front of home fans at the final siren will be a minimum score of 85 (East Point away avg).

Ironically, returns beyond the asking target have been achieved by the Lions three times this year, two of those occasions against top four opposition, namely Melton (87 in Round 12) and Sunbury on Good Friday (88).

Lions’ fans will have their fingers crossed reigning Henderson Medallist Matthew Johnston is unavailable due to rolling both ankles and copping a cork in last week’s win over Sunbury, joining smooth mover Alex Molan (ankle - season) on the sidelines.

One event that won't be avoided for the Lions will be the return of Kangas inside mid Mickitja Rotumah-Onus, who is due back from a hamstring complaint.

While the Kangas will go in warm favourites given their 10-2 win/loss record this year, the extent of that expectation will rely heavily on the goal returns of Bryson McDougall (31 goals) and impact of star utility Jordy Johnston (20) who has featured in best on 11 out of 12 occasions.

The Lions aren't without a host of capable weapons on their day either.

But, If the last three encounters head-to-head are anything to go by, it's going to be a tough ask for Redan containing the offensive power of East Point.

Not once over the sample size has Redan restricted the Kangas below 105 points, nor posted more than 78 points of their own at an average losing margin of 65 points.

However, footy can be a funny game, and momentum bare no ceiling, but it's the Kangas pure and simple in the lead up as the team to beat.

Scoop’s tip

East Point

While we're barely two thirds through the home and away season, the business end has arrived prematurely for Ballarat when they host Lake Wendouree on Saturday.

After four losses on the trot and a percentage inferior to all bar the Lakers, this match serves as an unofficial elimination final for the Swans despite their seventh placing on the BFNL table.

Coach Ash Baker's message will be simple.

Bring the pressure you did last week against top side Darley and the process will surely take care of the outcome in the form of a big win in front of their proud and loyal fans.

The band, we'll call them Ballarat in this case, are slowly getting back together and look ominous when on the same page despite losses to Darley (25 points), North Ballarat (26), Sebastopol (36) and Melton (20) over the last month.

The Swans are likely to welcome back important utility Paddy Simpson who has not been seen since post the Sunbury game in Round 4.

The loss of marquee recruit Biggie Nyuon (syndesmosis) has done the Swans no favours, they haven't won a game since.

But the return of Ash Butler and Simpson, experience of Andrew Hooper, sheer presence of Tristan Maple (Footscray VFL), growth of Fraser Perkins, confidence of Luke Gray and the consistency of the Rinaldi brothers should provide the ideal platform for the Swans to get about their business.

Getting within 25 points of flag fancies Darley and Melton is really encouraging.

Time to click Swannies, because road trips to Sunbury and East Point await in the next fortnight.

The Lakers will have gained some confidence from their last three-quarter effort last week against Sebastopol when they recovered from a one-point opening term to post their highest score of the season.

Sure, they were beaten by 58 points, but there was merit in the way they finished off showing pride in the jumper, adding respect to the margin in the end.

While that feature in isolation was a positive for the Lakers it wasn't dissimilar to their patterns of 2024.

The Lakers have proven they can match it with most for three quarters, but they continue to let opposition sides blow their candles out far too prematurely.

Scoop’s tip

Ballarat

As ladder leaders head into Round 14 as favourites, a steely focus is drawn to games set to determine the make-up of the top six with Sebastopol (2nd) hosting North Ballarat (3rd) and East Point (7th) at home to Ballarat (8th).

Given Redan's softer draw on the way home, East Point must win at home against eighth placed Ballarat to keep their finals hopes alive.

The Kangas still have meetings with Sebastopol (H) and North Ballarat (A) to negotiate with on the run home so getting the prized four premiership points here is paramount.

In fairness to East Point (10), come seasons end, only North Ballarat (11) will have played more top seven opposition for the season (out of the top 7).

But that is the way it goes when teams don't play each other twice - you must find a way to get it done. And the 2018/19 premiers have earned the tougher draw given their recent successes.

The Swans, like the Kangas, seemingly play their best footy in Ballarat and will need to present something close to that if they're trouble Jackson Merrett's group at Eastern Oval.

Drastic improvement on their last meet they will need to find - essentially a 45-point differential from Round 4 at Alfredton Oval.

Surely the Swans young group are beginning to tire despite the recent return of Daniel Kennedy and other depth players that played some role last year in their standout third place finish.

But too often the Swans are kept to scores not capable of winning games. On six occasions this year Chris Maple's young group have been kept to six goals or less.

While you’d expect them to surpass that quota, outscoring the freewheeling nature of the Kangas front half, as witnessed in Round 4, looms a different proposition altogether.

Merrett will be under no illusions what's required from his group - win and win well or contemplate missing finals for the first time since 2017.   

Scoop’s tip: East Point

While a win for the visitors will surely take care of itself, the Bloods will aim to get through unscathed ahead of two big games against Sunbury (H) and Darley (A).

Bloods’ coach Aaron Tymms will consider throwing the magnets around once this game is put to bed as a plan B option for finals, identifying some versatility within his squad.

But don't expect leading forward Ryan Carter to be going anywhere! After his come from behind tied win for the Tony Lockett Medal last year, expect the Bloods to make a certainty of it this time around with a 'Christmas in July', stocking full of goals.

Carter (38 goals) leads the competition by four ahead of Redan's Isaac Grant (34) and Ballarat's Andrew Hooper (33). A double figure bag could be on the radar for the tall, mobile forward.

The Panthers’ young blokes will gain some quality ‘on the job’ learnings running with the likes of Jack Walker and Lachie Watkins. Braedyn Kight will showcase his footy smarts forward and Jordy Cotter down back.

Panthers coach Ryan Hoy, 13 rounds deep into a long season may consider mixing it up at review, highlighting why the Bloods remain the benchmark, and most organised of all clubs in the BFNL.

Making a case for the Panthers upsetting their cross-town rivals today would be a falsehood. Bettering their 161-point loss at their first meet and denying the Bloods a 200-point scoreline looms a more achievable challenge.

Scoop’s tip: Melton

The Devils have a golden opportunity to advance into third place on the BFNL table (with a game in hand) when they start hot favorites against one-win Lake Wendouree.

While the Lakers’ season has been disappointing, they have shown some improvements, albeit in loss, with recent eight-goal returns against finals contenders Sebastopol, North Ballarat and East Point.

Their tough run of footy, including Melton, should hold them in good stead on the competitive front despite the absence of the O'Connell boys (overseas), Callum McKay (shoulder) and Jacob Coxall (concussion issues).

The inclusions of twin towers, former St Josephs (GFL) big man Tom Zampatti and Rebels tall Felix Fogarty has at least given Lakers mid-season appointed coach Tim Shearer some structural presence to work with.

The towering duo have featured three times in the best in their five and four games respectively,

For the Devils, coach Dan Jordan will have a list of priorities wanting to be achieved as his side continues its journey back to full health and fitness ahead of finals.

While the likes of Billy Myers, Luther Baker, Brady Wright and Leigh Spiteri have returned, there's nothing like more game time into rebuilding synergy with the group and their own 'tanks' in the process with big games still to come against North Ballarat, Melton and Sunbury.

Since their arrival home on Darley Park the Devils have been a bit leaky in defence over their three games, averaging 77 points against, despite wins over Bacchus Marsh and Sebastopol.

No doubt the Devils will look to reduce this number against the Lakers with finals-like frugality, a key component if Jordan's crew intend to go deep into finals.

Scoop’s tip: Darley

This battle is just what the competition needs ahead of five remaining home and away rounds that will decide the final make-up of the top six.

Depending on who you ask, both sides could play the underdog card with the Burra strong on their home deck while the Roosters arrive on the back of a seven-game winning streak.

Just what version of the Burra we get to witness on Saturday will go a long way determining their fate. Despite a 155-point win over the winless Panthers last week, the club is still not sure of its best 22.

Rushing Jed Hill. James Keeble, Bailey Medwell, Lachie Cassidy and Arnold Kirby back sounds like the ultimate restock, but how many returns are too many?

Often list turnover in the five or more range from one week to the next can be unsettling on the connection front. That's not including Daniel Widgery, Chase Dummett, Graydn Snowden, Jai Harvey and Ryan Birthesel who were also sidelined.

And connection will be just what Kiel and Columbro will need from their selected group if they're to end North Ballarat's middle season blitz.

Roosters’ coach Brendan McCartney is well aware he'll have to earn a top three finish the hard way with four remaining games against tough opposition - Sebastopol (A), Darley (A), Sunbury (H) and East Point (H).

The availability of the VFL affiliates at both clubs, like it or not, will have a bearing.

The Burras’ Jay Dahlhaus (Werribee) has had an immediate impact in his two games with nine goals, admittedly against the bottom two sides.

For North Ballarat, Jamie Quick (Geelong), Sam Glover (Collingwood) and Jack Riding (Werribee) all share match winning qualities that would pose a headache for the Burras’ hierarchy in the event of their selection.

North Ballarat looks the more settled for mine and on that alone, will lean to McCartney's army in a tight one.

Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat

Bye

Bacchus Marsh

Redan

Sunbury

With seasons on the line and claim local bragging rights at stake, there is plenty to play for this weekend as we head into the Round 14 action.

The Ballarat Swans are aiming for three wins on the trot and an opportunity to consolidate their place inside the top six when they travel to CE Brown Reserve to take on the Lakers this Saturday.

The two recent wins for Chris Maple's group ahead of their bye in Round 13 warranted plenty of merit accounting for Sunbury (22 points) and Redan (69 points).

While the jury rests over the scope and potential of the Swans moving forward, we're left to ponder just what version of the Lakers we're going to get.

On six occasions already this season (twice at home) the enigmatic Lakers have been held to five goals or less for the match holding grave fears for their ability recording an upset over the Swans and third win of 2024.

Unfortunately for the Lakers, despite frequent encouragement from rival coaches in the post-match, they're habitual sleepers at the wheel.

In 12/48 quarters this season, the Lakers have conceded six goals or more with nine of those resulting in seven or more.

On the flipside around scoring, the Lakers have been held goalless in 10/48 quarters.

The Lakers have gone on the record requesting no favours or concessions be made around age or where they're at re development. Request granted.

We look for a response from the Lakers on the perfect stage, the BFNL Match of the Round, streamed LIVE across the country.

Can Rohan Brown's Lakers find their groove and catch the Swans napping early off the bye and throw a spanner in the works for Chris Maple ahead of a likely finals preparation?

I'm not so sure - it's really a game the Swans should be winning on exposed form.

Scoop’s tips
Ballarat

Despite recent improvement, the Panthers face a near impossible task containing crosstown rival and ladder leaders Melton when they venture to MacPherson Park.

Where do you start breaking this game down, defining a 'mini win' for Travis Hodgson's struggling group?

I'm not sure even Hodgson has put a finger on it in the lead up.

Weather permitting the Bloods will have every opportunity matching their Round 1 return on the scoreboard in excess of 200 points if they don their kicking boots.

To put the disparity into perspective, Bloods’ star forward Braedan Kight (58 goals) has kicked 15 more goals than the Panthers have for the season.

Even Ryan Carter (29 goals) and Kyle Borg (19 goals) as an unlikely combo have more, highlighting the degrees of difficulty around containment awaiting the embattled Panthers.

What Hodgson and his club can ask for is effort, an area you can't deny the Panthers of in recent weeks.

Their core group led by Cody Chapman are a proud group despite their winless record in 2024 and will need little motivation getting up for another chapter of the local derby.

This match will tell us more about the Panthers than it will the Bloods.

With the result deemed inevitable given the current landscape - just how long the Panthers can hang in and savour a few moments hitting the scoreboard may be enough to redeem a wry smile out of the Hodgson camp, on an otherwise tough afternoon expected for the navy blue and white.   

Scoop’s tip
Melton

Despite the undermanned nature of the Roosters, expect them to start red hot favorites when they host the Cobras at Mars Stadium.

Both sides have had their struggles in more recent times with the Roosters dropping their last two games and the Cobras five of their last six. But the form of Brendan McCartney's inexperienced group reads undoubtedly more favourable (Darley, Melton) than Dennis Armfield's touring party.

Mars Stadium has not been a successful hunting ground for any visitors let alone the Cobras, earmarking the challenge for Armfield as one of the toughest over his short tenure.

I know looking back at previous results has its flaws, but there's no denying the Cobras will be up against it despite retaining the likes of Rye Penny and Wil Lalor.

However, they will miss feverish on-ballers Tyson Shea (jaw) and Jake McCreery (suspended) - both crucial to their fortunes, especially against top five opposition.  

If there was ever a time to get last year’s grand finalists, the time is now.

Just 10 players from the Roosters’ agonising one point loss to the Devils in 2023 took the field last week against Melton.

The absentees would walk into any other BFNL side, plain and simple.

So, the Cobras arrive with an outside prizefighter’s chance of walking away with their biggest win of the season and their first against any side currently above them.

Luke Goetz, Jake Owen and a host of improving youngsters are capable of taking it up to the hosts for periods but can the remaining collective match the trademark effort and intensity of a Roosters group on their home deck for long enough?

I anticipate the assignment proves a bridge too far.  

Scoop’s tip
North Ballarat

The injury ravaged Devils could fall from third to fifth in a fortnight and as low as sixth by the end of the home and away season if they fail to account for Sebastopol at Darley Park.

Given the absence of key personnel in all areas, the Devils (4th) will start underdogs, in my opinion, against a surging Burras (8th) outfit, despite their superior position on the BFNL table.

While the Devils squad of 22 is looking less and less familiar by the week, Tony Lockyer's visiting party is beginning to resemble more like the Burra we know following the return of star mid Lachie Cassidy and attacking half back Jack Bambury.

Key intercept defender Riley O'Keefe was a late out last week in the Burras 58-point win over the Lakers and is likely to return, bolstering stocks even further.

Important inside mid Daniel Widgery who has been in the best 4/10 games will also be in consideration after also missing against the Lakers.

Let's not forget, the Burra arrive on a mission of their own with their season on the line.

Led by Tony Lockyer (in best 9/12), the injury free, now reborn midfielder has been in super form, named 'best on' for the Burra in five of his last eight games.

That's Matty Johnston and Brett Bewley kind of stuff!

Speaking of Bewley, let's address the elephant in the room.

If the reigning dual Henderson Medalist does not play (50/50 as it stands), the Devils will surely struggle given Billy Myers, Brady Wright, Wil Johnson, Zane Le Huray (suspended), Mitch Ward and Jack Bewley are already sidelined.

Surely they won't risk their premiership captain ahead of the bye in Round 15 with important run home matches against Sunbury, Bacchus Marsh and Melton.

It's time for the remaining Devils, led by Luther Baker, Matty Brett and Matty Denham to pick up the slack, find a way and drag the backs-to-the-wall reigning premiers over the line.

Tough ask.    

Scoop’s tip
Sebastopol

Bye

East Point

Sunbury

Redan

Round 14 Football Preview with 'Scoop'

As we draw closer to the pointy end of the season, Round 14 stands as a huge weekend of BFNL football set to determine how the finals may come to look.

The Bloods are on a road mission to Mars Stadium to end a rare three-game losing streak when they meet an unpredictable North Ballarat outfit.

Troy Scoble's group were missing seven players from their 2024 Premiership side in their 20-point loss to Sebastopol last week.

With Melton under the microscope this week, a trip to Mars may not be their preferred option to bounce back to the winner’s list.

If the Roosters can replicate any of the form from their previous meet that went down to the wire, they are every chance again this time around.

Clint Proctor's group won three quarters that day to put a scare through the Bloods’ camp that surely hasn't dissolved from the minds internally.

A welcoming change of luck on the selection front for the Roosters will only aid their cause with the availability of VFL listed trio Denver Grainger-Barras, James Van Es, Riley Polkinghorne and big man Cam McCullum.

The Bloods will remain relatively unchanged.

Despite key inclusions, Proctor's young group will again go into Saturday's Match of the Round as underdogs v top four opposition and are unlikely to swing too dramatically from the blueprint that earned them the points over Sunbury last week.

The Roosters restricted the Lions to just 4.5 for the afternoon, their lowest return all season.

One pleasing thing for Proctor despite the Roosters challenges has been the spread of contributors in win, loss or draw.

If some top end soldiers can make it back regularly, who is to say North Ballarat can't have an impact at the business end? But for the here and now, not dissimilar to the Bloods, it's all about Saturday.

Sure, the Bloods have a nice cushion with their 9-4 record, but a loss on the road would confirm any 'vulnerable' speculation with Bacchus Marsh (A), East Point (H), Ballarat (H) and Sunbury (A) still to come.

For the Roosters, they've just got to keep winning with no ceiling on who they can challenge, for their best is around the mark.

Scoop’s tip

Melton

While the Lions hold a superior position in 4th currently on the BFNL ladder, both sides have won just two of their last six games giving an ambitious Swans bevy an outside throw at the stumps chance, on the road at Clarke Oval.

It will test the Swans’ self-belief to the core despite a morale boosting 80-point win over the Lakers last week if they're to give themselves any sniff of victory. 

The reality is, Sunbury were humbled last week on the road by North Ballarat who were prepared to bring the heat and deliver on a 'pressure first' plan that clearly derailed the Lions’ ambitions for a game on their own terms.

The Swans proved for the most part against Darley (25 points) and Melton (20 points) that they're capable of taking the game up to their more fancied opponents.

In fact, both of those meets came in the last six weeks and would remain a vivid memory for coach Ash Baker to ponder.

However, making Clarke Oval smaller and generating the necessary congestion and stoppage numbers would take the Swans’ best performance of the season across four quarters to deny a Sunbury line-up craving a bit of their own game style back in front of home fans.

Both sides share the misfortune of absent top end talent and for the six-week period under the microscope, that talent has been sorely missed given their W2 L4 returns.

Ironically their numbers in attack and defence over the sample size near a mirror image.

Sunbury hold the edge averaging an extra goal for, while conceding one less goal against.

Sunbury are just a different proposition at home and should get the job done but be wary of the impact of weather predicted.

Ballarat may get the inside game they need, but the Lions should prove a bridge too far no matter the deluge!  

GUARANTEE!Lions’ coach Matty White will carry no passengers and hold prisoners for this assignment.

White's healthy respect for the Swans has gone on public record, after their surprise win over the Lions in the back half of last year.

Scoop’s tip

Sunbury

Given the testing nature of the (new) 18 game home and away season and the proximity of finals don't be surprised if the ladder leaders rest a couple of blue-chip stocks for their match against the Lakers at Darley Park.

Just who, if any won't be known until selection, but it seems logical for the Devils with their 12-1 standing in the competition, doesn't it?

The Devils, under Dan Jordan in his fourth season, are 'travelling' and won't be taking any risks against the Lakers who are yet to win a game.

In fact, the proposed rest is no disrespect to the Lakers, it's arguably the best option for the Devils moving forward.

Leigh Spiteri, Duncan Cadman, Zane Le Huray, Jack Crawford and Matt Denham all need exposure at the level having missed lengthy periods and will need some touch ahead of the business end, not to mention the potential availability of trio Brady Wright, Mace Cousins and Lucas Impey who are yet to play the 13 games at VFL level, making them ineligible for BFNL finals.

Jordan still has more to see of his current stocks who are trending in the right direction.

Jostling for positions are a weekly challenge for the group and the results indicate progress. 

Another opportunity presents on Saturday for the new and emerging to stake their claim.

Lakers’ coach Rohan Brown will ensure his boys come to play and embrace the opportunity against the Devils who (currently) rank one in the comp for attack and defence.

Unfortunately, key ruckman Tom Zampatti will miss some footy with knee soreness which is likely to see Jaydo Wright assume the aerial duties around the ground, aiding an advantage around stoppage for the likes of Joel O'Connell and Kynan Raven who have had ripper seasons.

Angus Gove, Timmy Collins, Kyle Anderson and Bailey Ryan are all quality players and will make sure the Devils will be made to earn a likely 13th win on the trot.

The Lakers have pinched a quarter at each of their last two games against Sebastopol and Ballarat and will look to do the same on Saturday to deny Jordan's Devils the complete four quarter performance. 

Scoop’s tip

Darley

A win at home for Sebastopol (8th) could elevate them to as high as fifth on the BFNL table come 5pm Saturday if results fall their way.

The Burra’s must-win assignment for Saturday is against a confident and dangerous Redan outfit who are capable of executing a style of footy well above their current ninth place standing would suggest.

The two sides come together at the perfect time having enjoyed wins over reigning premiers Melton in the last fortnight.

While these two have shared similar frustrations at the selection table throughout the season, there is a sense the bigger and more experienced bodies of Sebastopol can rebound from their first meet back in Round 4 when Redan won by two points.

Sure, Gary Learmonth's Lions will arrive at Marty Busch Reserve full of ambition and promise, their slim finals chances depend on it.

They will have to get the job done without Kye Jess but get some reprieve at the selection table with the availability of Pat Fitzgibbon, Jordan Grant and potentially Will Madden.

But as much as we could sing the praises of Redan over the last six weeks it's been the Burra, of teams below Darley and East Point, that have surged into the spotlight.

In fact, if we were to look at the last six weeks in isolation, Tony Lockyer's men sit fourth with their three wins, rank fourth in offence scoring 82 points per game average and second in defence conceding 64.8pts pg avg. Redan (W2 L4, ninth in comparison), rank equal sixth with Sunbury in offence (71ppg) but ninth in defence (76ppg) for the period.

Numbers can only tell you so much of what has happened but they're a positive reinforcement the Burra are trending in the right direction.

As the troops from both parties transcend seamlessly into the healthy brigade we should be in for a cracking season-on-the-line hitout.

Let’s hope the form of these two sides match up having also endured honourable losses to East Point (2nd) in more recent times.

Whether the rain comes or not, I’m tipping the Burra to announce their own arrival in a close one.         

Scoop’s tip

Sebastopol

The Kangas will aim to extend their winning streak at Eastern Oval to 15 games when they host the improving Cobras.

Unfortunately for Dennis Armfield's touring party, their chances have been dealt a severe blow with the loss of key forward Jake Owen (finger).

The former Williamstown VFL product, come 100 game player at the Cobras leads the BFNL for goals and goal involvements, bordering on irreplaceable given his season numbers.

However, Owen's presence alone on Saturday, instilling the belief in the group should be enough to warrant a response given the stakes remain high for the Cobras.

Armfield's army are fifth on the BFNL table and two points clear of their nearest rivals heading into Round 14 but could be out of the six as early as 5pm Saturday if North Ballarat (Melton) and Ballarat (Sunbury) record upset wins.

All three sides meet top four opposition, not to mention Sebastopol, who have another season defining match up with Redan.

What a round of opportunity that presents all sides currently 5th-9th.

Sure, the Cobras were within 17 points at their previous meet but the Kangas were missing key trio Matty Johnston, Bryson McDougall and Joe Dodd.

To add further degrees of difficulty for the Cobras, Owen finished with an equal game high four goals alongside Kangas’ swingman Jacob Brown.  

The Cobras will get some comfort knowing Isaac Nixon and Jamie Fulton missed their first meet and share offensive qualities in the air and at ground level to aid a winnable score.

The reality is the Kangas would start favourites against any opposition given their unbeaten run at home and should (weather permitting) make it an impressive 15th on the trot at EO.

If there was a case to make for the Cobras causing an upset, it would come in the form of rain. 

A low scoring, inside game would only aid the Armfield mission.

For Kangas’ coach Joe Carmody, banking the premiership points will be enough to draw on from the Cobras who have won three of their last four games.       

Scoop’s tip

East Point

With just a month left on the home & away calender, every moment counts out on the field. Round 15 is set to answer some questions on where things stand in the run home of season 2023.

The anticipation is high for this all-important showstopper as two of the BFNL's more experienced mentors aim to implement a winning plan that will keep their side’s top three chances alive.

Brendan McCartney's travelling party will arrive confident having won seven of their last eight games including a 57-point (home) win over the Devils in Round 9.

The Roosters army were at their frugal best on that occasion restricting a disappointing Darley to just 28 points.

To put it in perspective, only Melton South (14) has scored less against the Roosters in their 13 games this season.

However, it wasn't the first time the Devils have failed to flatter in more recent times at Mars Stadium having lost by 69 points under Jordan in round 11, 2022.

As if it were a line in the sand moment for the Devils, they've won 16 of 20 games since. They're a better team now under Jordan, enough to warrant a 'mulligan' for their Round 9 failings without the likes of Billy Myers, Luther Baker and Bailey Young.

The fans will be spoilt with the levels of quality we’re likely to see on display.

For the home side, reigning Henderson Medalist Brett Bewley (named in the best nine times from 11 games) will lead the likes of Myers, Baker, Young, Matthew Brett, Shane Page and a host of improving types endevouring to impact under the radar.

Not to be outdone, Roosters marquee signing Stewart Crameri arrives with in-form mids Jack Riding, Riley Polkinghorne, star Collingwood VFL listed swingman Sam Glover, the returning Tom Hotchin and dominant big man Cam McCullum.

Unfortunately for the visitors, no Jamie Quick (33 goals) who must follow concussion protocols after a knock in last week’s loss to Sebastopol.

This one should be a ripper.

Fingers crossed, fine weather is forecast and the game is given every chance to deliver on its promise.

Both sides will look the winners for a long way but leaning with history repeating on McCartney's last trip to Darley Park in a lower scoring affair than the Devils 100-82 victory.          

Scoop’s tip: Darley

The Cobras will look to gain some reward for their recent competitiveness with the hope of victory over winless Melton South.

While a third win of the season appears more likely for the travelling Cobras, there's nothing like the feeling of a win and rendition of the victory theme song in full voice.

Unfortunately for Ryan Hoy's Panthers they're little chance of enjoying the very thing we can take for granted - winning.

It's been the toughest introduction for any coach in recent memory, averaging 176 points against per game.

Adding salt to the wound does little for the embattled club who have also endured a horror run with injury culminating in a third loss of 200 plus points last weekend.

This week however is no Melton, Sunbury or Darley, the three clubs to have put Melton South to the sword by 200+ points, so look for the Panthers to make positive inroads.

They’ll be eyeing the hope to top their highest return this season with a score of 8.12-60 the benchmark, a tally posted against the Lakers in Round 5.

Easier said than done however, as the Cobras eye some conviction of their own.

Their top end talent led by Jake Owen, Jake McCreery and Luke Goetz will ensure the majority of game is played on the Cobras terms as they endeavor to tick off a number of KPI's.

Coach Jason Williams won't be taking this game lightly and will be reliant on a collective buy-in from the outset, enabling maximum result possibilities.

Scoop’s tip: Bacchus Marsh

Sunbury head to MacPherson Park with their slim top three chances still intact. But they will have to do it the hard way on the run home needing wins against Melton (A), North Ballarat (A), Bacchus Marsh (H) and Darley (A).

A big ask, but they're looking ominous ahead of the business end following the return of Tyson Lever (foot) and Mitch Lewis (overseas). Dangerous forward Jake Sutton (overseas) is expected to arrive home on Thursday, prior to the Bloods showdown.

While the Bloods have lost just one game this year, they will have to overcome the Lions without key forward duo Ryan (concussion) and Liam Carter (calf).

Aaron Tymms' men remain the blueprint for the soldier in, soldier out theory but there is no doubt even the most loyal of Bloods’ fans would be wondering where their scores will come from.

That said they did have 14 goalkickers last week against the Panthers.

Given Port Melbourne VFL have the bye expect former St Kilda listed Brenton Payne to assume the key forward role and Braedyn Kight to sacrifice recent midfield minutes for a return primarily to the front half where he is a proven matchwinner.

That would be a nice place to start in the absence of the Carter brothers.

The midfield battle will be finals-like. We're familiar with each teams’ capabilities offensively in this area but do the Lions have the discipline to impact without the ball, denying the Bloods run in transition.

Not many can say they have, especially on Maccy Park.

Can Sutton and ageless support act Leigh Brennan do enough to trouble the Bloods defence? While Sutton has 28 goals from his eight games, the jury is out whether he can impact 48 hours post an overseas return.

Big Lion Cody Brand will also need to stand up against the reigning premiers - his appointed role at either end will be crucial.

The Lions are 0-3 against top three opposition this year and come into the game with a questionable four-week preparation having had Melton South, Ballarat and the bye in the lead up to this Bloods battle. 

Scoop’s tip: Melton

Visitors Redan will be chasing their first win in four weeks when they meet the tenth placed Lakers at CE Brown Reserve.

The Lions head into the game warm favorites and will look to put this game to bed early as they continue their quest for a prized top six finish.

They will be given every chance to usurp East Point (bye) in sixth place. Overcoming the Lakers will see the Lions back into the six, percentage ahead of the Kangas.

An unlikely loss for Gary Learmonth's young group will jeopardise their chances however it would not be the end of the world given the nature of their draw sees the Roos still a strong showing to finish sixth.

So, expect the Kangas from a distance to have one cheeky eye on the prospects of an upset.

But let’s be realistic - Redan should win and win well despite having won just three of their last eight games.

Midfield quartet Isaac Grant (34 goals), Lachie George (in best four times from seven appearances), Cooper Craig-Peters and Daniel Bond will look to assert early dominance around clearance to give opportune forwards Grant Bell (19 goals), Marty Boyer (15 goals) and Lachie McLean (14 goals) first crack impacting the scoreboard.

Despite the Lakers’ capitulating loss to Darley last week, they were very competitive for the best part of three quarters.

Big men Tom Zampatti and Felix Fogarty have added some aerial presence while defenders Angus Gove, Bailey Ryan and Cody Helyar showed resilience against quality opposition.

It's a shame the Lakers have had to endure recent weeks without the O'Connell boys (overseas), Jacob Coxall (concussion issues), Callum McKay (shoulder) and Flynn Loader.

Kicking a winning score could be the Lakers’ greatest challenge. They have managed just eight goals in four of their last six games

A tally that will see them struggle to win but maybe enough to keep them in the game long enough.

Scoop’s tip: Redan

Bye

East Point

Ballarat

Sebastopol

With the race for finals almost locked in across our top six, eyes will turn to the formlines of our teams looking to contend across the September action.

The Swans’ chances of toppling a decimated North Ballarat at Alfedton Oval are 'very real'.

Forget their Round 9 meet.

Ballarat aren't the only side to leave Mars after a failed mission and won't be the last.

The Swans have won their last three games on the trot and have sewn up sixth spot already ahead of finals and could finish as high as fourth.

Let's hope the realisation of finals has the Swans continuing to build on the messaging from outgoing coach Chris Maple.

The Swans are a better side around the ball and look more structurally sound than the group we saw at their previous meeting with the Roosters 49 days ago.

Doesn't seem very long I know, but maybe the penny has dropped at the Swans, boys are becoming men.

The Roosters test will serve as a timely footy audit for Maple and his finals bound Swans.

Can they make an impression with a win at home in front of their loyal and faithful or will they be considered as just making up the numbers come September? 

Guarantee, the Roosters will make you earn the premiership points or any point for that matter regardless of who is missing.

Coach Brendan McCartney has had no choice than to focus on the 'what haves' over a luckless season on the injury and availability front.

The current Roosters’ list is loaded with progressive young talent, not shy on cracking in.

Sure, they're lacking the A-Grade assets at the moment to upset a Melton or East Point, but they will be confident taking the down the Swans in the meantime.

This result will tell us more about the Swans than it will a skeletal version of the Roosters’ best 22.

Scoop’s tip
Ballarat

With finals now seemingly beyond reach of these two, this match could pose as the unofficial decider as the best team outside of the six!

Finding motivation should be easy for these two proud clubs but the Burra are hosting their Sponsors Day lunch and will look to impress in front of a big crowd at Marty Busch.

For visitors Redan, coach Gary Learmonth, while disappointed the reality of finals is now all but off the table, he will see the occasion as another opportunity to develop his young group.

The Burra on the other hand, despite excuses, it's felt too much like trying to make up for lost ground given the club hasn't missed the September action since 2018.

Both sides have had their struggles hitting the scoreboard, so I’m not expecting the heights of their entertaining returns in Round 4 but we can wish for a similarly tight affair.

No Luke Kiel for the Burra is a big out. They missed him last week against the Devils having left the ground in the first quarter with a hyper extension of the knee.

It couldn't have come at a worse time for Tony Lockyer's group aiming to keep their season alive.

Expect Lockyer, Lachie Cassidy, Bailey Medwell and Jack Bambury to pick up the slack in the absence of Kiel to get the job done in front of fans desperate for a second 'home' win of the season.

Redan's troops should hold no fears for the Burra and arrive with every intention of leaving with the premiership points ahead of a night long celebration at their Mid-Year Ball.

There's nothing in this match, just leaning to the hosts spoiling the Lions’ party ahead of their version of the big dance on Saturday night!   

Scoop’s tip
Sebastopol

Sunbury will look to capitilise on their 'double up' meeting with Melton South consolidating the four premiership points on offer and likely percentage boost that comes with it.

Expect livewire Lions’ forwards Jake Sutton and Mitch McLean to be given every opportunity to 'fill their boots' despite the efforts of a 'recently resistant' Panthers. 

Fresh off the bye, Sunbury will welcome a solid hit out ahead of two big games against Darley and East Point.

I'm not sure what Lions coach Matty White will define as success in the aftermath given the inevitable nature of this result, but resembling more of the Sunbury we saw in the opening six weeks of the season is surely on the Lions’ radar.

Needless to add, getting through unscathed would be a bonus for the Lions given some minor setbacks to key personnel in recent weeks.

Jake Egan, Mitch Lewis, Jack Hannett and Nathan Wood have all missed some footy and will look for some continuity in the lead up to finals.

Star mid and Coburg VFL listed player Ben Cameron is arguably the Lions’ best player and will be a welcoming inclusion at finals time if he indeed misses more games at local club level.

It wouldn't take Einstein to predict the Panthers best players named ahead of the game - the sheer weight of dependence is a heavy load to carry.

The unenviable rotating bottom five or six scenario at the Panthers is likely to continue for another week adding further degrees of difficulty to the task at hand.

Tipping Panthers’ coach Travis Hodgson will have one eye on the Sunbury score as a measurement of their ability to contain while the other will be a little more ambitious, a view to the Panthers own inside 50 count and what that can amount to on the goal front.

Either way you look at this game - mini wins loom potentially for the hosts while big wins lie in waiting for the visiting party.

Scoop’s tip
Sunbury

Fresh off the bye, expect a rejuvenated Kangas outfit to hit the ground running and extend on an unbeaten run of 11 games when they host the Lakers.

The Kangas are the real deal and have been for some time.

They've won more games than any other side from their last 17 that included a Preliminary Final appearance in 2023.

East Point have won 15/17, ahead of Melton and Darley both 13/17 for the period.

The experience of last year’s two finals wins will hold them in good stead especially with the proven returns of key pair Jacob Brown (in best 6/10) and Mickitja Rotumah-Onus (5/12) to the club, and arrival of new coach Joe Carmody who has taught this group how to defend (comp rank #2).

There's a gulf in class that will be on show at Eastern Oval, but nobody needs to tell Lakers’ coach Rohan Brown.

For the here and now, they're just names on paper.

That's the attitude a combative Lakers unit will want to take into the game to unsettle any class differential.

Brown will surely demand the effort and the work rate, that's a given.

But do the Lakers have what it takes to deny the Kangas a blow out, or a real surge in momentum of back-to-back goals? That lies their greatest challenge, a 'mini win' if you will to take from an otherwise (expected) spirited loss.

The Lakers have some good cattle that will ask questions of East Point early, but the sheer quality of depth in the Kangas’ squad will prove too overwhelming.

Their stars are all in form posting big numbers or hitting the scoreboard.

The Kangas by definition are proving 'more than a handful'.

I expect the trend to continue and Carmody's all conquering Kangas will make it 12 wins in a row.       

Scoop’s tip
East Point

Bye

Bacchus Marsh

Darley

Melton

Round 15 Football Preview with 'Scoop'

As we enter the final month of the home and away season, our clubs will look to unlock a ladder logjam which holds the key to the top six jigsaw. 

Reigning premiers Melton remain on the road for a second week when they meet a Bacchus Marsh outfit clinging to fifth place on the BFNL ladder.

While the Bloods locked themselves in for another final’s series last week with a narrow win over North Ballarat, they would be keen to take another step forward with their midfield connection without the likes of Jaycob Hickey, and overall efficiency on goal.

With a relatively dry forecast at Maddingley Park on Saturday, Troy Scoble's group get an ideal opportunity against a very competitive Cobras lineup to recapture some of that ‘Bloods aura’ that took them to a 19-1 season in 2024.

Conversion in front of goal for the Bloods is a concern (48% - down 15% on last year from 1st to 7th) but expect them to 'get a few looks' at the weekend against the Cobras who rank just ninth in defence for the last seven weeks.

The Bloods defence is sound, rank one for the sample size despite losses to Darley, Redan and Sebastopol and will make it difficult for the Cobras to post a winning score in the absence of Jake Owen (finger).

Cobras’ coach Dennis Armfield has every right to be excited about the future with their next gen talent, including four recent BFNL interleague representatives Josh Huxtable (20), Isaac Nixon (20), Rye Penny (20) and Jack Kovacevic (21).

You would think all must play a significant role, alongside seasoned trio Luke Goetz, Jamie Fulton and Jake McCreery to entertain any 'big scalp' ambitions.

Bacchus Marsh should be better suited at home after a tough trip to Eastern Oval last week and are likely to name a similar line-up, while Bloods’ quartet Jordy Cotter, Luke Heaney, Brodie Sullivan and Max Scoble will need to pass a fitness test to earn the nod of selectors.

Scoop’s tip

Melton

Just what version of Redan are we likely to see given the recent departure of popular coach Gary Learmonth when they host ladder leaders Darley, a well-oiled side currently on a 13-game winning streak.

Despite the home ground advantage and recent competitive record against the Devils, the chase for a fourth win of the season will be a tough ask.

The Lions will endeavour to stay in the present and reproduce the kind of form that led them to a miracle, come from behind win over Melton just three weeks ago. 

While the BFNL ladder shows the Lions in ninth place, their form over the last seven weeks has been encouraging even though the W2 L5 record suggests otherwise.

In a tough, and every even competition, the Lions rank seventh in offence and defence for the period.

You only have to look at the season form of Brodie Pope, Rory Gunsser, Taj Bond, Rudie Fode, Lachie George and the x-factor talents of Lachie Bond and Lachie McLean to confirm the Lions pose a genuine threat and will be planned for accordingly.

Devils’ coach Dan Jordan faces an interesting night at the selection table following their 123-point win over Lake Wendouree.

Rested quartet Billy Myers, Luther Baker, Wil Johnson and Joel Cadman will be in the mix for a return as will Duncan Cadman, Leigh Spiteri and Jack Crawford who made inroads via the reserves last week after missing a block of footy.

Unfortunately, the build-up hasn't been ideal for the Lions but bet your bottom dollar it will business as usual for Jordan and his touring party, fully aware an interim coach appointment can draw a curve ball, in the name of an upset.

Expect the Devils to be prepared, trained to the minute and ruthless in their pursuit for victory.

Scoop’s tip

Darley

Despite the absence of key trio Matty Johnston, Bryson McDougall and Joe Dodd, the Kangas will start warm favourites to consolidate second place on the BFNL ladder when they host the Swans.

If the Kangas’ superior ladder position wasn't convincing enough, try their imposing unbeaten run of 15 games at Eastern Oval to add to the degrees of difficulty facing Ash Baker's Ballarat.

East Point are just a different proposition to overcome at Eastern Oval; they play the ground so well.

Unfortunately, inclement weather and untimely (footy) traffic has affected the often pristine surface of Eastern Oval.

The writing was on the wall as early as three weeks ago in the Kangas’ 22-point win over Sunbury when most players fell victim to the heavy ground conditions and slippery surface.

Reigning Henderson Medallist Matty Johnston (ankle) could attest to the theory having not played since.

Ballarat won't be too concerned with the nature of the surface, in fact they will welcome a slow deck, not dissimilar to the one experienced at Alfredton Oval last year when the Swans upset Joe Carmody's high flying Kangas.

The Swans have been a competitive unit all year bar their 79-point thrashing against the Kangas at their previous meet in Round 7, when the flag fancies went to work ending with 11 goalkickers in one of their finest team efforts for the season.

Usual suspects Jordy Johnston, Jacob Brown, Mickitja Rotumah-Onus and Jackson Merrett will lead the charge for the hosts, endeavouring to keep their stellar season intact despite missing a number of soldiers.

For the Swans, their slim chances begin at the source, their pressure under Baker has earned the plaudits of other rival coaches at the pointy end. 

The Rinaldi and Maple brothers, Wyatt Squires, Paddy Simpson and Fraser Perkins are capable of testing the bigger bodied Kangas midfield while Harry Butler and Andrew Hooper can provide the x-factor forward craft that equates to scores.

Big ask for the Swans, but belief is a non-negotiable, their finals chances depend on it with a tough run to follow against Bacchus Marsh (H), Melton (A) and Redan (H).

Scoop’s tip

East Point

Given Sebastopol's recent revival and swift move into the six, it's time for consolidation when they host Sunbury at Marty Busch Reserve.

Burra coach Tony Lockyer would admit his troops got away with one last week and will need to find their best if they're to topple a Lions outfit on their fourth trip to Ballarat in five weeks.

Not dissimilar to last year, Sunbury have had their struggles in the back half of the season having won three of their last seven games and were stretched on their home deck last week against Ballarat.

There's an inkling around the competition the Burra are here to stay inside the six, and a win over Sunbury would not surprise.

The form, the resurgence, of Sebastopol if you like has come on the back of not only returning soldiers but a spike in offence and defence accountability that sees them rank fourth and third respectively over the last seven weeks including four wins.

Sunbury on the other hand rank sixth for the period in both areas despite their fourth place standing on the BFNL ladder.    

This match up will provide a timely reminder where both teams are at with just four home and away games remaining.

While there's less pressure on Matt White's Sunbury, who host Lake Wendouree next week, before Bacchus Marsh (A) and Melton (H), the Burra’s unofficial finals campaign starts now or risk being usurped by North Ballarat (7th) or Ballarat (8th) who sit half a game behind on 22 premiership points.

Just who Lockyer sends to star Lions’ forward Jake Sutton will be pivotal given the Essendon VFL talent has bags of five goals or more in seven of his 13 games.

The reliance on Sutton hitting the scoreboard is crucial given key forward Daniel Johnson has missed the last three games due to Coburg VFL selection.

For the record Sutton has kicked 11 of Sunbury's 24 goals (46%) in Johnson's absence.     

Scoop’s tip

Sebastopol

The current form of North Ballarat gives every indication a comfortable win is in store over the winless Lakers at CE Brown Reserve.

While the margin is may be up for question, expect the Lakers to make the Roosters earn their spoils.

It's unfortunate the Lakers don't have a focal point forward aiding their cause on the scoring front, with a miserly average of 46 points per game.

Sure, the Roosters average just 20 points more on average but expect a spike in their numbers to validate the separation.

The result does look inevitable on exposed form but who is going to do the damage on the scoreboard for the Roosters given their average returns for the last seven weeks must be asked.

North have averaged just a whisker over 52 points per game - hardly convincing.

But what the Roosters do have is a touch of class among their top end who could all play a role forward, putting this game to bed early.

Josh Morris could be the man to join Hugh Trigg in the Roosters front half, planting the seed for a big day out.

The former Box Hill VFL listed Morris can play anywhere and has been quite the band-aid utility for coach Clint Proctor amid the frustrations of a broader group hampered by injury and unavailability.

The Lakers will miss heart and soul ruckman Tom Zampatti for another week and will look for Jaydo Wright to assume the 'big man duties'.

Wright was a standout in last week’s loss to Darley and was instrumental in his club’s third quarter effort that saw the Lakers boot four of their five goals for the match.

In isolation, the plucky Lakers were just a goal shy from pinching the quarter.

Any copy paste period from the Lakers will ask questions of the Roosters desperate to maintain good habits with a game on their own terms.

No doubt there will be an interesting postscript to process in the aftermath.

The inside battle, fundamental efficiency and reward on goal are three key areas both Proctor and Lakers’ coach Rohan Brown will be casting a keen eye on.            

Scoop’s tip

North Ballarat

We're back with a full slate of games this weekend, which will see some crucial contests unfold. There are finals spots on the line and matchups that are set to mould how the final six will fall come seasons end. 

Bottom three combatants Bacchus Marsh and Lake Wendouree will fancy their chances when they meet at Maddingley Park.

Both teams have proven to be competitive for periods against more seasoned opposition in recent times but are yet to breakthrough with an upset.

While the Cobras’ three wins have come against Melton South (twice) and the Lakers, the hosts have three final quarter wins against top six opposition.

Clutching at separation, I know, but it's enough to instill the Cobras as warm favorites given the Lakers’ only win has come against the winless Melton South.

Interesting to note the Lakers form early in games has been encouraging before late fade outs have cost them dearly on the scoreboard.

On the flipside, the Cobras have shown a liking to finish off well. More often however when the game is already put to bed.

Settling on who gets it done is not easy. When in doubt, back in the team with the most influential top end.

Tipping Cobras’ big man Luke Goetz will cancel out Lakers’ tall timber pairing Tom Zampatti and Felix Fogarty.

Expect Jake McCreery and veteran Tyson Shea to be the immediate beneficiaries with Jake Owen (25 goals) looming dangerously forward. I sense this could be a pattern for the day.

Scoop’s tip: Bacchus Marsh

Top six aspirants East Point will need to bring their scoring game if they're to upset third placed Sebastopol.

With the Kanags chances buoyed by the absence of Burra livewire Jay Dahlhaus (hand), plenty more will need to go right to keep their finals hopes alive.

Alternatively, the Burra will look to consolidate its top three and potential top two status with a grinding win on the road.

Despite what the ladder suggests (7th v 3rd) by no means will this be a walk-in-the-park for pre-game favorites Sebastopol.

Both teams come into the game fresh off the bye, just who gets down to business first may be hard to run down given the high stakes.

Surely Burra coaching duo Luke Kiel and Michael Columbro have an eye on containing one of the Johnston brothers but the thought of two negating roles through the middle of the ground could spell danger.

Expect Jackson Merrett's Kangas to roll the dice and back themselves in to hit the scoreboard. Brad Whittaker (24 goals), Jack Jeffrey (17), Bryce McDougall (16), Jordy Johnston (14) alongside Merrett himself (12) are all proven goal scorers in 2023 and will be keen to deliver.

Burras forward duo Toby Hutt (31 goals) and Hugo Papst (27) will present their own set of problems for the hosts, not mentioning a likely return for all important midfielder Lachie Cassidy from a hamstring injury.

Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol

Visitors Sunbury will need some genuine inner belief if they're to conquer North Ballarat at Mars Stadium.

The Lions will arrive near full strength and seemingly in-form, despite a four-quarter loss to Melton last week and will want to deliver a strong performance in Ballarat or leave the slim possibility of a sixth or even worse, seventh place season finish in play with two rounds to follow.

Let's be honest, Sunbury's form in Ballarat is cause for concern, having had just three wins from their last ten visits with two of those victories coming against a lowly and rebuilding Lake Wendouree outfit.

While Brendan McCartney's Roosters have lost their last two games on the road, like it or not they're a different team at home boasting a 15-3 win-loss record since 2022.

Expect the hosts to be strengthened with the return of dangerous forward Jamie Quick (33 goals) and Sam Artz, both from concussion, while the availability of Jack Riding (Werribee VFL) remains a 'watch this space'.

Both sides like to run and carry the footy, bordering on similar styles. The result could well be decided by which team can execute the basic fundamentals more efficiently - plain and simple.

Given the Roosters imposing home record and the Lions inability to deliver their A-game against like-for-like opposition in Ballarat you have to lean to the Roosters getting the job done. Sunbury are more than capable, even labelled 'smokies' for the flag. Time to get to work!

Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat

The Devils should move into rare company come 5pm Saturday with a 12th win of their season when they host the winless Panthers.

A minimum 12 wins for Dan Jordan's men beckons, a feat only Melton 2022/23 (14/13*), Ballarat 2022 (12), and East Point 2018 (13) have been able to achieve in the last five seasons.

Given the nature of the 2023 season, it's likely a minimum of 13 wins is what you'll need to guarantee a top two finish allowing very little room for error.

While we know the potential advantages of finishing third, the evenness of the competition gives you no assurance of progressing. Give me a top two finish any day in 2023.

What version of Jordan's best 22 we're likely to see carries more weight than most discussion points surrounding the second v 11th encounter.

The hosts will look to get through unscathed eyeing a healthy list available for the business end. Following the Panthers, the Devils host Melton and Sunbury in the lead up to finals.

For Ryan Hoy's embattled group, the season’s end is near.

Saturday's meeting with the Devils on the road marks the penultimate game of their season with Redan (A) and the bye to come.

While we can expect an honest performance from the Panthers progressive group of youngsters, they're a mile off troubling the Devils, who have bigger fish to fry. 

Scoop’s tip: Darley

Chris Maple's Swans return home with another opportunity inflicting an upset when they host Redan at the weekend.

Prior to the bye, the Swans had lost their last three games, and even their mojo at times, going down by margins of 52 (East Point), 52 (Sunbury) and 39 (North Ballarat).

Admittedly all three games were on the road, so a chance presents in front of a home crowd to reproduce some of their best footy after a timely break.

The Swans have the cattle to upset teams above them on their day so Gary Learmonth's Lions will need to be switched on.

The visitors have plenty to play for as a spot in the top six looks beckons as things stand.

Despite 33 shots on goal, the Lions managed just 10 goals in their comfortable win over the Lakers last weekend.

Lions’ sharpshooter Isaac Grant was (and not for the first time) largely the culprit finishing with a wayward 3.9. Grant has the unwelcoming stat of the league’s leading scorer of behinds (31) well ahead of the next best with 20.

Something resembling the six goals Grant kicked in their earlier Round 3 meet will be on the wish list for Lions fans.

Alternately, Swans leading goal scorer Andrew Hooper (38 goals) kicked four goals in the 31-point loss at City Oval.

Both sides bring the heat and enjoy a contested brand of footy. I'll lean slightly more towards the broader experience of Redan over the Swans, especially at the coal face.

While the Lions can flirt with their own form from time to time, I can't see them leaving the 'upset' door ajar with so much at stake at this time of the year.

Scoop’s tip: Redan

It's set to be a massive weekend as a number of teams will need to win, and win big, as we enter the penultimate round of the 2023 home and away season.

The 'nothing to lose' Swans are off to Marty Busch Reserve embracing another upset opportunity, this time against third placed Sebastopol.  

Coach Chris Maple will be hoping his young group, first and foremost, can stay in the game up until halftime as they've managed to do so recently against Redan (-4pts), East Point (-19pts) and North Ballarat (-4pts).

The Swans’ opposition, Sebastopol, loom an imposing task, especially in Ballarat. The onus on the importance of the Swans opening half comes on the back of the Burras’ impressive numbers for the period.

Of the Burras’ 11 games played (anywhere) in Ballarat - Luke Kiel and Michael Columbro's group have led at the main break 10 times, on the other occasion things were all level.

Only North Ballarat in Round 14 have been able to match the Burra at the halfway mark.

While it's a 'throw at the stumps' game for the Swans there's much more at stake for the hosts. A win will keep their top two chances alive, hoping the Devils can drop at least one of their two remaining games against Melton (H) and Sunbury (H).

Knowing Luke Kiel and Michael Columbro, further improvement and something resembling closer to their best will be enough for the dual appointees to be satisfied. The result will surely have taken care of itself in the event of the Burras delivering on internal expectation.

Keep an eye on the first half - can the plucky Swans buck the trend against the odds? Momentum will play a role here determining the extent of the final result as the hosts look to assert their authority early.

Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol

A significant confidence edge awaits the winner of this top two meeting ahead of the BFNL finals series.

The Bloods and the Devils rank one and two in all areas of scoring both for and against, setting the scene for a mouthwatering match up.

While the Bloods hold the upper hand in all areas, the two are matched identically for shots on goal after 16 rounds with 402 apiece.

The Bloods are coming off the bye while the Devils will look to up the ante after their low pressured 212-point win over Melton South.

Leading forward Ryan Carter and swift ball user Adrian Monitto are expected to be in the mix for a Bloods return while the hosts get a boost with the addition of ruckman Lucas Impey (Western Jets) for another week.

We could expand at length about the likely scenarios of so many what ifs, but the reality is, this game in the context of the season, has more meaning for the Devils.

Dan Jordan's men still need one more win from their last two games to secure second spot and guarantee a prized double chance. Win, lose or draw, the Bloods standing won't be affected.

Sure, the reigning premiers were without Jack Walker, Lachie Watkins and Monitto at their first meet and lost Liam Carter midway through the game but that will account for very little come 2pm Saturday given both sides have moved on from their Round 8 battle of attrition.

While the Devils landed the points that day, they will again start the underdogs against the top placed Bloods. But Dan Jordan’s men are more than capable of claiming the four points at home.

This timely footy audit will be welcomed by both sides, a last chance to fine tune, hone skills and gain learnings against a long-term, well-respected rival.

Scoop’s tip: Darley

Bacchus Marsh will look to make it a hattrick of wins in the back half of the season when they endeavour to upset finals fancy Sunbury at Clarke Oval.

While the Cobras have shown encouraging signs with big wins coming in, the reality is all four of their season wins have come against the two sides below them, Lake Wendouree and Melton South.

The Lions however, are fresh from a fortnight footy audit on the road that saw them finish within 27 points of ladder leaders Melton and 12 points of North Ballarat at the fortress that is Mars Stadium.

Consume the form as you please, but the two honourable losses of the Lions carries more weight than the Cobras’ 106 and 92 point wins.

The Lions are near full health and will welcome a solid hitout against the improving Cobras who will retain their Coates Talent League boys for another week. 

Travis Hodgson's group have proven capable of hitting the scoreboard in 2023 with Melton and Darley the only teams bettering their 101-point average per game.

In defence the Lions rank fifth conceding 64 points on average per game. On the flipside the Cobras rank eighth in both offence 67 ppg and defence conceding 81 ppg.

Given the Cobras sheer weight of possession over the last two weeks, their impact without the ball will be tested on the wide expanses of Clarke Oval.

Sunbury are one of the teams more prone to a 'keepings off' style of play.

The ability for the Cobras to win the ball back could be telling. Just an even share of possession will be testing for the Jason Williams’ Cobras hitting the scoreboard given the strength and accountability of the Lions’ defence.

Admittedly youngsters Joel Freeman, Isaac Nixon and Will Lalor give the Cobras a different look forward alongside the BFNLs number one contested marking option in Jake Owen but overcoming Sunbury looms a formidable task.

Scoop’s tip: Sunbury

While the result of this match-up is deemed inevitable, Redan will look to adhere to the buzz word of many a modern-day coach to max out their returns - 'process'.

Surely if the Lions play to instruction, with a team first mantra, the 'process' will evidently take care of itself, restoring confidence in a group nervously trying to hang on to a spot in the finals.

East Point (7th) are breathing down their necks and have played enough good footy in recent times to suggest they will get the job done comfortably across town against the Lakers.

Just what went wrong last week when the Lions coughed up a 35-point quarter time lead had many, most of all loyal fans, wondering what is going on.

Surely a finals berth is enough motivation to complete the job at hand. I've no doubt executing on the 'process' was found wanting despite the will of the Swans to turn the game around with little to play for on the finals front.

Expect the Lions to take advantage of the struggling Panthers, who can't wait for season's end with the bye to follow. Tipping they'll either be 'pesty' with their efforts knowing it's their last hurrah or the cue is already in the rack and the Lions win big.

Containing the hosts leading scorers Isaac Grant, Grant Bell and progressive youngster Marty Boyer could prove the difference between a respectable loss or a total blow out for the embattled Panthers.

Tipping something in between and the Lions to open right up and resemble something closer to their best adhering to their 'process'.

There's no better time to start finding some touch and sensing a team-oriented buy-in worthy of a prized finals spot inside the top six.

Scoop’s tip: Redan

The Kangas will aim to put this game to bed early and set themselves up for a significant percentage boost when travel to CE Brown Reserve.

Jackson Merrett's seventh placed group remain a live chance to play finals despite the likelihood of sixth placed Redan recording a big win over winless Melton South.

The Kangas energies will be all in on what they can control and that starts with an impressive team victory over the one-win Lakers.

The visitors’ top end talent are in good form and the spread of goals forward evenly balacned. To put it into perspective, the Kangas have seven players with 13 goals or more, the Lakers, just one.

Tim Shearer’s Lakers have shown periods of competitiveness against quality opposition for small periods and will look to bounce back after their disappointing 92-point loss to ninth placed Bacchus Marsh.

The Kangas will look to deny the home side any momentum, especially early. If this can eventuate, look for the visitors to surpass the 100-point total for a seventh time this season and stay within touch of the Lions’ expected percentage again at City Oval.

While Henderson Medal contender Jordy Johnston will look to add a sixth BOG performance to enhance his chances for the prestigious individual award, the revered forward come midfielder would be the first to acknowledge a far greater goal lies at stake for the proud club who haven't missed a finals series since 2017.

Scoop’s tip: East Point

The penultimate home and away round is upon us, with just two weeks left in the regular season.

As teams prepare for finals, the away sides all head in as at least mild favourites for this weekend's fixtures.

The Lions’ top three chances hang in the balance ahead of a must win game against a red-hot East Point outfit at Clarke Oval.

While there was little between them on the scoreboard at their previous meet, the Lions did kick the last three goals of the game to flatter the final margin.

But credit to Sunbury, that's the closest any team has been at Eastern Oval all year.

Sure, Clarke Oval flips the advantage ahead of their Round 17 clash but Sunbury will need to address a few things if they're to end the Kangas’ 13-game winning streak.

Fact: Sunbury have won just two (Melton South and Sebastopol) of their last eight 'first' quarters and rank #11 for average clearances per game.

I know clearances aren't everything and are considered an overrated stat by a few experts, but 11th - really?

The return of Jake Egan will add some bite around stoppage as they go head-to-head against the competition's number #2 ranked team in this area.

As for the Lions’ starts, call it coincidence if you like but their three win, five loss games record for the period aligns more with a browse, raising pattern for concern.

Joe Carmody's visiting party arrive with four of the BFNL's top 16 goalkickers and five of the top 25.

Sunbury has just two in the top 40, albeit two of the top five.

The dependance on Lions’ pair Jake Sutton and Mitch McLean to kick a winning score has not waned given the two are responsible for 95 of the team’s 202 goals for the season (47%).

A successful assignment for the Lions will be judged on their ability to multitask in the run.

'Maintaining' and 'containing' will be the order of the day for Matty White's men - a potential third place finish depends on it.

Nothing really needs to change for the high-flying Kangas bar a correction on their disaster 80-point loss here in Round 11 last year (109-29).

Scoop’s tip
East Point

The Swans will look to build on the learnings and good habits of recent weeks when they head down the highway to meet the winless Panthers fresh off their highest BFNL score in 39 games!

Let's acknowledge quickly, the Swans will be winning.

Outgoing coach Chris Maple has done a good job with this group.

Finals are a lock, and the Swans remain unbeaten since Round 10.

What I’m liking about the 'semi arrival' of Ballarat is the clarity in which the players are responding to their roles.

Their growing number of ball winners are finding the footy more than ever, the talls are holding their own across all three lines.

What they're not marking is being brought to ground.

Opposition teams aren't just waltzing into goal and out of the back half as they please.

Furthermore, Marcus Powling rarely loses the hit-out count in the ruck, while at ground level there’s enough leg speed at the Swans to trouble any side.

They're the encouraging good habits going on at the Swans and you can expect more of the same against the Panthers.

The 'learnings' side of things are not so fundamental.

Maturity in footy IQ remains a work in progress at the Swans around composure and decision making.

That's not always easy when you're coming up against some of the best players in local footy going around.

But Maple has them tracking nicely ahead of an exciting return to finals.

For the Panthers, well they've set themselves a new bar with the 13 goal scoreline last week against Redan.

Credit to them. Cody Chapman keeps racking up the numbers with and without the ball while Jarrod Bibby sounded the alarm of what's to look forward to with four goals and a tenth appearance in 11 games named among the club’s best players.

Scoop’s tip
Ballarat

North Ballarat head to City Oval for their last home and away game of the season to take on Redan.

Both sides will give themselves a live chance banking the premiership points despite little or no luck on the injury front over recent weeks.

Despite Redan's up and down run, injuries have been more crippling for North Ballarat than any side, but somehow, they've been able to stay competitive.

And not just competitive, the Roosters have had their moments for periods against the two dominant teams Melton and East Point, not to mention the reigning premiers, Darley, who sit third. 

Just who the Roosters get back will be a welcoming discussion for Brendan McCartney and his group given it's their last game before finals with the bye on their fixture for Round 18.

Riley Pokinghorne may return while it's been confirmed Quick, Loader and Crameri (retired) are done for the season.

Leading Lions possession winner Khy Jess is in serious doubt after a heavy landing on his back last week that saw him leave the ground early against Melton South.

The weight shifted onto Lachie George and forward pair Lachie Bond and Grant Bell to lift the Lions over the line.

Expect much of the same this week in the likely absence of Jess, Werts and Fitzgibbon.

Both teams are loaded with players shy of 20 years old, earmarking this game for a genuine, spirited battle of youth.

While experience will be lacking at the level, ironically the familiarity of the opposition won't be given the age profile.

You could see firsthand what impact the return of Roosters bigman Cam McCullum had on the group with his physical presence alone.

Also, the bonus addition of Joel Freeman inside 50 has provided the Roosters with a genuine aerial target.

The former Cobra has 13 goals from his last three games including a bag of five last week against the high-flying Kangas.  

Weather permitting, the game should provide plenty of highlights and pose a genuine look into the future of next generation BFNL talent.

Scoop’s tip
North Ballarat

The Cobras will need little motivation bucking the trend of an ailing win/loss record when they host cross town rivals Darley.

Since their 'first' bye in Round 7, the Cobras have won just one of eight games.

Sure, Dennis Armfield's group have had excuses on the back of injury, suspension and unavailability but they're not alone.

The frustrations for Dan Jordan despite a more favourable win/loss are not dissimilar.

Again, I expect both sides to be well shy of their best 22 on paper.

I'd love to be writing up this game as one for the ages with all the bells and whistles thrown in but in reality, expect a hard-fought scrap, stoppage to stoppage game played predominately on the 'inside'. 

Given the level of desperation we often see in a local derby like this, I don't foresee a final margin to reflect the two sides’ current position on the BFNL ladder.

In fact, four of the last five local derbies have been decided by 12 points or less.

The Devils should win easy, but they won't - they will be made to earn any advantage.

Strangely, this match up for the here and now is the Devils most important in the context of their season as a potential third place beckons.

That alone elevates the status to 'danger game' for the Devils.

The Cobras’ season is done, but their pride and spirit will be in full verse I assure you against the old enemy.

I'm tipping Armfield will get everything out of his young group while his top end aims to match or better the enviable spoils made available out of the Devils’ camp.

The Devils must deliver under the weight of all pressure and expectation because if there's one group that would like to spoil their top three chances it's the progressive next gen brigade of the Cobras.    

Scoop’s tip
Darley

Melton are on the road and will look to extend their nine-game winning streak when they meet the Lakers at CE Brown Reserve.

The hosts are fresh off the bye and should welcome the challenge after a disappointing effort a fortnight ago against the current number two side of the competition, East Point.

Rohan Brown's group barely made an impression in their Round 15 hit-out, smashed by 155 points.

I'm not sure there's that much of a gulf between the Lakers and the top two - clearly belief remains a work in progress at CE Brown up against the powers of the BFNL.

This weekend poses an ideal opportunity for a turnaround despite the fact the assignment won't be any easier.

Intimidation could be another factor for the Lakers to overcome given the recent Bloods dominance in these fixtures.

There's no point mentioning just how one sided they have been, it's old and unwelcoming news for the Lakers who must find a way to change the narrative in their penultimate game of the season.

The Bloods’ front half boasts five of the top 14 goalkickers in the comp and a defence who treat every goal concede as if it were a kick in the teeth!

Their back six averages just 40 points against per game, well clear of the competitions next best in East Point (50 points pg).

The midfield battle will be a fun watch, both have shown encouraging growth in this area relative to their respective journeys throughout '24.

Composed entries will give the Lakers every chance to bettering their two-goal return against the Kangas. 

Anything registered above the Bloods’ season average concede (40 points) would be considered a tick.

On the flipside, any failings around noncompliance and work rate without the footy could open the floodgates for the Bloods to reach 100+ on the scoreboard for a ninth time this season.

Scoop’s tip
Melton

There is all to play for as we head into the final home & away weekend of the 2023 BFNL season. Who will secure an elusive finals spot, with a number of places in the top six still up for grabs!

With North Ballarat's fourth placing a lock for this year’s BFNL finals, don't expect any favours forthcoming for East Point who must win to give themselves any chance of moving into the top six.

Brendan McCartney's record at Mars Stadium since his appointment at the start of 2021 is formidable at 16-3 but will account for very little as Jackson Merrett and his visiting party plan all their efforts to upset the trend with a season on-the-line performance.

The Roosters are coming off the bye and will look to resemble something close to their best ahead of a do-or-die elimination final next week. Despite winning eight of their last 10 games, the Roosters have lost two of their last three albeit against teams above them in Darley and Sebastopol.

The Kangas will take some confidence into the game knowing they have already beaten the Roosters back in Round 5 this year.

That, along with the standout form of mid/forward Jordy Johnston and support crew Joe Dodd, Matty Johnston, Joel Van Meel and Cam Lovig provide a mounting case for the visitors.

Merrett (16 goals), Brad Whittaker (26), Bryson McDougall (25), Liam Canny (21) and JJ (21) are capable of kicking a winning score, and will surely keep the hosts honest on the goal front.

But with top talent Jack Riding, Sam Glover, Jamie Quick, Stewart Crameri and Riley Polkinghorne all likely inclusions for North Ballarat, the task for the visiting Kangas will be far easier said than done.

Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat

Expect Melton to mirror its 2022 minor premiership with a 14th win of the home and away season when they take on the Lakers at CE Brown Reserve.

Ironically, it was the Lakers at MacPherson Park in Round 18 last year that Aaron Tymms’ Bloods claimed the minor premiership with a 122-point win. While there's a certain inevitability about Saturday's result, what fortunes lay ahead for the Bloods are not so clear.

Sure, they only lost two games this season, both to the Devils, but there's seems to be a certain level of mortality about them (unlike last year) despite seemingly 'holding the wood' over all teams, bar Dan Jordan's men.

This hitout against the Lakers will give Tymms' reigning premiers a welcoming opportunity to fine tune their touch and any other concerns they may have applying recent methods.

Those variables aside, options to manage any player niggles will be soaked up by the brains trust ahead of a qualifying final next week against Darley (likely) or Sebastopol.

Some will be required to work through it, others granted the week off. Either way, the minor premiership looms as another feather in Tymms' cap, albeit his final year in charge.

For the Lakers, it's been another tough year on the win/loss front with recent results giving every indication season’s end is near.

Let's hope they can find the energy to give interim coach Tim Shearer a response worthy of his efforts following the mid-season departure of Jack Fitzpatrick.    

Scoop’s tip: Melton

Despite the Devils (second) and Lions (fifth) current standing inside the top six, there's a little more at stake than meets the eye when these two rivals meet at Darley Park.

For the hosts, securing a prized double chance that comes with a second-place finish can only be guaranteed with a 14th win of the season given third placed Sebastopol (12 wins) are breathing down their necks aiming to bridge the Devils’ one game and 14% advantage.

Sunbury (151%) on the other hand sit level on 32 points with Redan (6th-135%) and East Point (7th-121%). The only way Sunbury can miss finals will be in the rare event of a loss and wins by Redan over Sebastopol and East Point over North Ballarat, with both on the road.

Tipping both coaches will have appointed an eager eye to follow the progress of those games and adjust accordingly. 

Putting all the hearsay to one side for a moment, the Devils head into the Lions meet with recent home wins over Melton, North Ballarat and Sebastopol. Sunbury however, while competitive for long periods have won just three of their last nine games including three losses on the trot.

Expect both sides to bring the heat early and depending on what is unfolding around the BFNL in real time will determine how long the burners remain on high. For carrying a healthy list into finals will be deemed of paramount importance given the even spread of competition.

Scoop’s tip: Darley

Fact. Sebastopol are yet to be beaten at home all year and are yet to be headed at halftime in any of their 12 games played in Ballarat.

When you throw in they're yet to field (arguably) their best 22 on paper, the chances of the Burra breaking their near 50-year premiership drought look promising.

The Burras’ five game winning streak will be put to the test when they face Redan (6th) who are yet to consolidate a finals berth.

While Gary Learmonth's group can finish as high as fifth at the expense of Sunbury, a heavy loss could see them fall as far as seventh, pending the result of East Point's effort against North Ballarat at Mars Stadium. 

Redan have had their chances to lock in the prized sixth spot but have won just three of their last six games, two of those against Melton South.

On the other hand, the hosts have been ultra consistent, having dropped just three games for the season to Melton, North Ballarat and Darley. Strangely, despite playing off in last year’s grand final, the Burra copped the Bloods just once.

Anyway, if Redan can deliver something similar to their Round 9 performance against the Burra (won three quarters), surely they're a chance of an upset.

On paper, the Lions read a formidable combination. But with the Burra expecting Riley O'Keefe, Jay Dahlhaus and Jed Hill to return, the home side looks ominous, enabling chance to be peaking at the right time.

If Redan can get it done, they will surely have earned their place, but the numbers and scope favoring the Burra suggest Kiel and Columbro’s men won't be willing to part on any momentum ahead of finals, with a slim second place finish still on the radar with the Burra needing need Sunbury to beat Darley comfortably. 

Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol

While much of the BFNL's attention leans toward how the top seven sides shape the final six on the last day of the home and away season, spare a thought for the unofficial battle for eighth when the Cobras host the Swans at Maddingley Park.

While only percentage separates these two sides, it's the Cobras (at home) who occupy the box seat finishing off their season with six wins including their last four on the trot.

Winning out of turn has been rare for these two despite wins over Sunbury (both) and Redan (Ballarat). But it's the gap between the Swans’ best and worst that has left some unconvinced this season.

They have managed just the one win on the road for the season (Melton South) from seven outings and meet the Cobras who refuse to put the cue away ahead of time.

The Swans have seven losses for the season in the 45+ points range including two over the 100-point mark. Alternatively, the Cobras have four defeats beyond 45 points with just one of those toppling the ton (Round 1 v Sebastopol). 

Momentum and an all-important home ground advantage at this time of year will favour the Cobras despite the likelihood of them losing key personnel back to the Coates Talent League’s final round.

The Swans are more than capable of winning, the list will tell you at as you scroll looking for reason.

But there's a positive vibe sweeping the Cobras at the moment and a win in front of their faithful, a fourth in a row will consolidate the club’s direction even further as well and truly on the right track.   

Scoop’s tip: Bacchus Marsh