When you look at the top six v top six form in isolation, Saturday’s qualifying final looms a battle for the ages as the best defence (North Ballarat) goes head-to-head against the best attack (Sebastopol) at Alfredton Oval.

In fairness, the Burra’s potency forward has been in decline since the first half of the season.

Tony Lockyer’s boys (excluding their Lake Wendouree games) averaged 13.75 goals per game in the opening half, down to 11.125 goals in the run home.

It may not sound like much but in a game of fine margins, Roosters’ coach Clint Proctor would be more than happy upon the realisation the number one ranked team has waived by close to three goals in the run home.

And make no mistake, the Roosters have some firepower of their own with Jye Lockett kicking multiple goal returns in his last 10 games.

Take the last seven games across the competition from both sides (excluding the Lakers) as a form reference heading into this heavyweight bout as a fair enough sample size to identify a favourite.

The Burra won five of their seven games by an average of 15.2 points, usurped by the Roosters’ unblemished 7-0 run by an average of 27.8 points.

Clutching at straws potentially but these two sides deserve the deep dive given their impeccable 15-win seasons separated only by percentage.

It’s fair to say North Ballarat had a horror run with injury to the halfway mark while the Burra have experienced their frustrations in more recent times.

The solid form of North Ballarat through the back half of the season in particular, led by their frugal defence, is enough to sway the pendulum in favour as the team to beat on Saturday.

Expect a physical encounter as Lockyer in particular has endeavoured to manage his players right up until the door knock of the final’s series.

Luke Kiel (knee) and Adam Forbes (managed) will make a case for their selection, while Max Faulkner, Harvey Shea and potentially Simon McCartin are primed for a recall in the absence of unlucky pair Ethan York and Brayden Purchase (concussion).

If you’re one to explore whether Alfredton Oval will help or hinder any particular side, it was Sebastopol who took the honours against third placed Ballarat way back in Round 2 (15 points) while the Roosters had their colours lowered by the Swans comfortably in Round 10 by 59 points. Up to 16 Roosters from that loss will feature on Saturday.

Looking forward to the midfield battle beginning in the ruck with Dave Brinker-Ritchie and Toby Hutt going head-to-head while the scrap at ground level is sure to resemble a classic arm wrestle for long periods.

There’s a host of match winners on display across the ground, too many to mention. For the Burra to win, I anticipate they will need goals from their midfield.

However, it came down to assessing defence v defence as the kicker influencing a final selection, though I do think both sides will get their chance.

Other numbers of interest – top six v top six in isolation.

North Ballarat avg points FOR: 77.8 (#3)
Sebastopol avg points FOR: 86.1 (#1)

North Ballarat avg points AGST: 58.9 (#1)
Sebastopol avg points AGST: 73.4 (#3)

Note: Both North Ballarat and Sebastopol missed finals last year. The meteoric rise has seen the Roosters improve from 7.5 wins (seventh) in 2025 to 15 wins (first) in 2026 under second year coach Clint Proctor. The Burra, under Tony Lockyer, are also up to 15 wins (second) from seven wins (eighth) last season.

Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat by 9 points.

Expect targeted match ups on the competitions two leading forwards to have arguably the largest say determining the result in Saturday’s mouth-watering elimination final decider between Ballarat and Melton at Marty Busch Reserve.

When 200cm key target Biggie Nyuon (59 goals) plays he is responsible for 32.4% of all Swans goals while at the other end, the 178cm x-factor brilliance of proven big game performer Braedan Kight (55 goals) represents a tick over 26% of all Bloods majors.

The firm deck and recent visits to Marty Busch Reserve should hold Troy Scoble’s ‘Bloodahood’ in good stead despite their inferior win/loss season record to the Swans.

Even last year’s extra time preliminary final outing would be a vivid memory in the minds of the Bloods core despite the heartbreak loss.

Purely and simple, the familiarity of the ground and any nuances associated will only aid the mission.

The Bloods welcome the return of star mid Billy Crofts and progressive ruckman Josh Stewart who has a crucial role of his own to play given the plethora of tells among the Swans.

Don’t underestimate the impact of Crofts and Jaycob Hickey between the arcs, their two-way running and accumulation will act as the barometer for the Bloods alongside Braedan Kight’s ability to hit the scoreboard.

Unfortunately for the Bloods, the jury is out on the availability of Lachlan Phillips, Adrian Monitto, Jack Walker and Ryan Davis who spent the entire final quarter of last week’s loss to Sebastopol on the bench while underrated utility Conrad Farrugia remains in doubt for another week with a shoulder complaint.

Despite the rise of the Swans, they have, to varying degrees, gone under the radar, on the injury front in particular.

Swans’ coach Ash Baker has made little or no reference to their second half season frustrations as forced weekly changes became the ‘norm’.

Injury, travel, and VFL selection doesn’t appear to have unsettled the outgoing mentor and well revered Swan, who seemingly, is taking it all in his stride as the cliche suggests,
“all part of footy”.

The Swans will be bolstered with the inclusions of Brad Crouch, Alex Keath and Fraser Perkins who missed last week’s trip to Sunbury, providing every chance for the trio to be cherry ripe for a challenging finals campaign.

Both sides have looked vulnerable at times over the last month with two wins from their last four outings.

The Swans must start well, catch-up finals footy is a drain.

For the record the Swans are minus 33 for opening quarters against top six opposition this year having trailed at the first change in six of those 10 games.

On the flipside the Bloods (+59) were unbeaten in first quarters against top six opposition for nine matches up until last week’s Round 18 loss to Sebastopol.

Other numbers of interest - top six v top six in isolation.

Ballarat avg points FOR: 77.8 (#2)
Melton avg points FOR: 74.2 (#4)

Ballarat avg points AGST: 70.5 (#2)
Melton avg points AGST: 77.1 (#4)

It’s also worth noting the Swans have won 12/14 games in Ballarat this season.

Scoop’s tip: Ballarat by 9 points.

Sunbury are preparing for an all-out assault overcoming bogie side Darley in Sunday’s Elimination Final at Darley Park.

Integral Lions quintet Tyson Lever, Josh Guthrie, Harry Power, Ben Cameron and Sean Reilly are expected to return for the do-or-die clash having missed last week’s morale boosting win over flag contenders Ballarat.

While the Lions rank sixth (of six) for offence among the teams remaining, the recent inclusions of Daniel Johnston (20 goals, 9 games), Pat Scanlon (10/11), and Jordyn Gillard (17/9) should serve them well and capable posting a winning score.

But how many times have we made a legitimate case for the Lions to end their run of outs against the Devils, currently at seven games and nine of their last 10 meets?

Surely this time with the absence of Devils’ star mid Brett Bewley (hamstring) and progressive young tall Jayven Tanner (jaw), the Lions can overcome their nemesis.

Contrary to some of the key numbers of recent weeks, the reality is the Devils are out of form having lost four of their last five games including their last three at home - very un-Darley like. In fact, the Devils are a modest 3-7 against top six opposition this season.

Look for a spring in the Devils’ step this week. If finals and a season on the line decider is not enough motivation to ‘get busy’, I don’t what is!

Dual Premiership coach Dan Jordan will surely tap into the mental edge his group has over Matty White and his Pride to spark a response.

Speedster Nick Hind (34 goals) and key defender Matty Brett will make a timely return for the Devils after missing last week’s loss to North Ballarat.

While Brett to Daniel Johnston looks a given, who will get the job on Devils’ forward Will Johnson (37 goals), who has provided an afternoon long headache for the Pride in recent times?

The midfield battle does provide some concern for the Devils given the Lions ability to push forward and hit the scoreboard - Jake Egan (21 goals/10 games), Jack Newitt (20 goals /17 games) and Josh Guthrie (9 goals/14 games).

However, despite the Lions arrival with recent wins over Ballarat and Sebastopol under their belts, some of their numbers in isolation will need a correction if they’re to overrun the Devils.

Fact is, Sunbury rank ninth in the league for second and fourth quarters which is a bit of an anomaly given their strength on paper.

The Lions have also lost four of their last five final quarters in the run home paving the way for a nervous finish in more ways than one.

For the record, Darley rank first in the competition for second and third quarters despite winning just 11 games, six games shy on last year’s home and away season that ended in a premiership win over, guess who?

Sunbury!

Other numbers of interest – top six v top six in isolation.

Darley avg points FOR: 68.1 (#5)
Sunbury avg points FOR: 67.7 (#6)

Darley avg points AGST: 81.0 (#5)
Sunbury avg points AGST: 85.7 (#6)

Note: Darley has won six of the eight finals against Sunbury since their inception into the BFNL in 1997.

Scoop’s tip: Darley by 5 points.